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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能( x1 O% U3 V" H8 H0 G& f# Q4 I2 U0 e
5 y7 f; n8 ^6 O& U' d
& U5 q. ^( k+ P; V成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。1 a n+ S4 l2 e# V1 a
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。" D h2 @ e! o: X8 e- \" J( t
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8 ^4 ?, ~) O$ z 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
: Y" a3 q; c' ]7 N4 q# ]* Z. ]" C/ Y' |; z+ I* j- y, O# E$ K3 I
政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀8 d9 j+ b- E) k1 h' a' D% t" m
) Q% k- b7 j2 \压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。% ?' k4 l1 h+ K+ ]( j6 o
- \2 a) j C9 d& u今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产& m7 F& g% g% M/ R" O( x
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对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战% a; \9 y0 j2 {/ p. r" X
, n: F4 E3 y" ]& G. h% S略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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1 B% @! U5 @2 O3 b! F4 N看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。5 Z- X& c" u; T* z- Y! ?* j
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