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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第二节]
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第二节 平手/半球初盘' H2 h+ w5 J: }! X: r' r6 p) I
l3 g2 w0 h: _ 平半降盘,主难出34 `' C& z3 {. C) L) {8 L
一般情况下,主队初盘让平/半只是对主场因素的考虑。在英超08-09赛季澳彩以平/半为初盘的83场比赛中,主队37胜26平20负,比率为胜45%、平31%、负24%,。虽然主胜率略高于客胜率,但是平局比率较大,使得主队不胜率高达55%。此数据与以往赛季略有出入。再看09-10赛季英超已经进行的比赛的统计。
, h/ R# `: Y& l5 W3 A" p8 R 09-10赛季半程主队平手/半球盘成绩统计:
3 t7 P% c# S8 r& L 英超主队( [! T( n5 I) P3 R
胜:23场 40%. C6 j& |. ?6 B+ B- z4 b. O" T
平:21场 36%
* S+ N( b2 E* N1 r) X 负:13场:22%8 p! C4 o/ H2 Z- J- P9 S$ a
通过统计可以看到,英超平/半初盘,在09-10赛季进行时中的表现与上个赛季出入并不大。打平的比率与主胜比率已经十分接近,此盘路下足彩重点应在防平方面。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位为例,开始分析英超主队平手/半球初盘盘路。
- D' D2 y; I0 p- [0 ` - U. g3 p: s# J* g, e% b
一、初盘阶段
6 q; d; w& z+ V 9 b7 T5 @: K7 L, _' q: F" I
具体到水位如下:5 ]. Z3 |$ ]( X- F2 p% G
初盘低水:英超主队 5胜7平3负! v# G( t4 t9 \& o% p, l$ N, {4 a
初盘中水:英超主队10胜4平4负
& c7 T, u9 L; v* ~, n% o 初盘高水:英超主队3胜8平5负
' O' ~7 i- X3 ]' _2 D7 n
]$ n( O( B# P3 P$ L* X 分析:初盘阶段平/半低水,主要发生在0.76-0.85区间。其中出现最频繁的是初盘0.84低水,该水下主队1胜3平1负,主队不胜次数较多,足彩打出10的可能较大。 }8 c- i4 i1 q8 I; N) c
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.86-0.98水位区间。该水位下主队赢球机会较大,但是客胜和平局的比率也不小。在该中水范畴内0.92-0.94区间下主队输球比率较低,足彩打出31可能很大。0.88水位出现了2次均都分出了胜负,足彩可作为30双选的备选考虑。0.96、0.98水的不确定因素较多,足彩任选9和单场建议回避,14场的大单建议全包。在中水下要特别关注的是0.86/1.00水,在英超平/半盘中,该水位下主队基本不败,足彩跑出31的几率较大。
+ L$ R, M r \4 H7 y9 I6 { 初盘阶段高水水位,主要发生在1.00-1.10区间。该区间内主队取胜的机会并不多。其中1.02水下主队输球或不胜次数最多,足彩打出10机会较多。1.00、1.10水下几乎都是平局,足彩出1的机会很大。1.08、1.06、1.04这三种水位下主队均都输球,足彩出0的可能性需要重视。
3 y* M/ D+ Z, F) s
" x- y3 D. I! b8 Z2 G 二、临场阶段
$ h% ?0 h$ K. V4 {% Q
8 `# ~1 @/ Q/ Z$ J; y% m 具体到盘口变化如下:
! C# Y6 p! R6 H! r 临场降为平手: 英超主队 1胜1平2负" V" A0 B# E6 k6 e* q: D
临场升为半球: 英超主队 3胜3平1负7 F0 E' ^. z: L( j8 R
& o' J+ N) t0 k; \9 e2 S4 |# z& J 分析:临场主队降为平手盘,英超主队只取得1次胜利,主队不胜的比率较大,足彩10的可能性极高。这里要提醒大家的是,如在主弱客强、但是主队状态或者战意强于客队时,主队初盘让平/半高水,临场降盘升水到平手高水或超高水、而诸如立博、易胜博等亚盘甚至转为主队受让平/半高水时,则要注意客队大热、主队赢球可能反倒增大。
5 D9 n9 T: J1 r- c2 p, O# D 临场主队升盘为半球盘,即区别升盘后是造热还是阻盘的问题,统计结果是主队基本不败,足彩31格局较正路。输赢盘的盘口特征如下:6 a/ Y5 t; Z5 q6 u2 R X- L, R
( L( N/ ]; J! I) o) Y! g/ Q 狼队0-1朴茨茅斯6 @7 g. _. f8 j# x# w y( B
初盘:0.76平手/半球1.104 m* G$ ?. ], `7 t6 [: v+ u# X4 Z
终盘:1.11半球0.75
* X$ J M: V# [5 z* ~9 n8 \; F
x5 v. u- l. I 切尔西1-0曼联
0 [/ A& U- g% q! s 初盘:0.78平手/半球1.08
2 O( g+ h/ `" I 终盘:0.86半球1.00
, H7 x& D* ^, q9 y( f% A8 ` 5 B3 t4 D# v5 @* H4 ^5 e! ^5 A! r
切尔西2-0利物浦
1 p/ _0 A9 y; Q) u8 G* M( n( h 初盘:0.88平手/半球0.988 f+ {& k8 {3 X6 K }0 P
终盘:1.03半球0.83% n# S" h/ ]4 ?$ }
8 } c4 W7 q; G9 v+ b8 M 热刺3-0曼城(赢盘)
4 x4 U# e" `# f4 C 初盘:0.94平手/半球0.92- R* ]' B" S! Y4 F- Y$ q( n
终盘:1.03半球0.83& Z) p% e: R A( {7 c
0 W- `4 |0 Z9 D* \+ _
博尔顿1-1斯托克城, d; P, g7 R& S& v
初盘:0.86平手/半球1.009 r( g8 q; ?8 o" O4 V9 \ T$ x
终盘:1.04半球0.82
# M) @/ G- y8 h+ }. P1 I
$ a! \9 z" n# c3 @ 提示1:初盘0.86/1.00水位作为上下盘水位,在平手盘和平/半初盘多次出现,在该水位下主队基本都不败,但要注意的是平局的次数也较多。6 p" k1 ~1 M2 v1 s- m" q
提示2:初盘水位0.88/0.96分胜负的概率较大。英超、英冠本赛季已经出现10场在初盘该水位下没有平局的比赛。2 R9 y# C& o0 {7 j" M3 G
! z4 g' v5 T) a4 D 三、球队表现# j5 Q8 d. q Z F
" K+ G+ p% F6 F- W+ G+ y
赢盘较多的富勒姆,在初盘让平/半于实力接近的客队时都取得了胜利,在09-10赛季的两次平/半盘中分别战胜了布莱克本和桑德兰,该队让平/半初盘时主场出3的能力值得关注。其他表现较好球队是切尔西、伯明翰、斯托克城、维冈竞技,这些队伍都在主场让平/半时赢球较多,其中切尔西本赛季在平/半初盘下取得2胜、分别战胜了曼联和利物浦,伯明翰和富勒姆目前都是4胜1平1负,维冈竞技2胜4平,这些球队在让平/半盘时客队赢球机会都很小,无特别情况足彩31值得信任。狼队是在平/半盘下很少打出平局的球队,成绩是2胜1平3负,平/半盘下该队足彩可多考虑走两头。表现较差的球队是阿森纳、朴茨茅斯、埃弗顿、维拉、赫尔城、博尔顿,这些球队在平/半初盘下都是或平或败,目前均无赢球纪录,遇到他们的赛事,足彩建议以双选01为主。6 ?4 I6 w* y+ v% r
. g4 F5 c0 F7 k; L: W* b
四、投注要点6 X4 x8 Z3 t& ^& c. k6 }
" P- S- Y- Z o6 C 要点1:平/半降盘,不选3& p( O: s2 F- m5 M' ?" U% H
要点2:初盘低水,注意关注提示的水位2 I5 s9 ~; W( c! V
要点3:主队升盘,多31
$ c T1 K+ w! ~3 f' w/ P; P 要点4:切尔西平/半、赢球多
! [/ c' k/ F8 I" ~2 ?% E 要点5:兵工厂平/半、0不可少' T0 G" B M% R5 F' [; {2 X
要点6:切尔西升盘,首3补1可省0 |
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