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[lastpost] => 2754328 马斯克警告:比特币的“量子危机”正在倒计时? 1754759581 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
分析师:比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元,但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称,比特币今年将面临“周期底部”,可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中,链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测,2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”
( `' T3 u8 b) H2 @5 V8 K. Q+ \, cVenturefounder写道,根据比特币减半周期的历史模式,今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。
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就像2018年和它的熊市一样,BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部,如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅,这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天,与过去的周期相比,我们按时看到了比特币的表现,”一条推文解释道:
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: r% c" B/ E% F/ H& U$ b+ w4 j“在接下来的670天里,BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降,并触及周期底部(14-21k美元),然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元,并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”
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这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息,但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后,比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元,然后再次逆转下行,在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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. @3 s7 y* J) o; ^* c即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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Venturefounder认为,这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此,那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。4 d) Q2 u5 a8 B+ [ p
) n! F, @4 d9 Q+ O2 B: u* ^4 S' H“换句话说,从现在到未来6-12个月,购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率,”他补充道:
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“我们可能没有在周期底部,但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”
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$ s+ w: r" a3 A( H) i* q底部预测不断出现
- D) d0 L0 t: H与此同时,其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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6 l% M" R3 i; h, \链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示,目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。 l. K, @/ }! b0 }* M# y$ |
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9 P' @# ?4 K2 K5 cBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源:Glassnode) h% F% ^9 H, J. V Q/ L
- O$ A0 g* m$ l/ c" C7 z上月,同行分析师Rekt Capital估计,一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线,其潜在目标价为15500美元。, F5 \* v2 X2 S$ N C
, l1 ^' b( [% z1 T9 B卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺,只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关,它就买入。 C; a# W) u4 r5 o7 _3 r& O* x/ V
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实,他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。
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