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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
6 q* h+ D: \4 e) k     
  x/ o' E+ ]" B' X" H! d     平手中水,主队有利) G, ]1 N1 ^( }
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
* d3 ^' X8 U- f: y# n* g5 |     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:1 V, [- b" X8 G6 m
     英超主队- {: h6 ^6 E$ H
     胜:13场 48%
! x" c) A* s: t, H9 y; B% {% }     平:5场 17%
6 ~9 ?( R& e2 Q) ]- m4 q$ c& s     负:9场 35%
/ [0 E; R" ^: }! Y6 S     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
( m- Q+ L/ u; V+ f3 {/ f% o     
; n, A2 i9 D! D0 H: }: m     一、初盘阶段- \) ~! g% D1 W0 u) V9 m8 Z
     具体到水位如下:
0 \* u; B0 g1 {5 [2 ]3 }5 H! x     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负$ H" |# I4 V3 m0 x# Y8 H  J; z2 d
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负6 P4 l9 Z) a# ?/ Y5 r0 X
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负) y5 A" H1 H0 ~8 T
     
4 Q/ F) B! I/ d7 D, W+ M: L5 b     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
* r$ E1 Q3 t; D! A  ?/ ]     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
2 Y! f* e+ f  h/ {1 E. [4 O! o     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。+ h8 k: D" h. O9 P; \& s; k
     
  K  h: `2 N( u. D: N     二、临场阶段" x+ x: R' v' x
     
4 t- c" W; {+ i  N( Q  X     具体到变盘和水位如下:$ D: R: [" W% }; ?3 J2 e9 u
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负7 |2 ?! E% J7 y- J
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 E8 z  k1 `* E+ U  a( Q- l/ G( X
     6 e7 P/ p1 a8 z# E1 c. l: |
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。) }% H; p+ Q+ Y- d
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
+ N' f1 U5 U: G( |" N$ f6 P, s     # c* s, p, M$ r5 L6 J7 i+ m
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
& }3 `: H+ C$ [, {% n( }' E# q     初盘:0.82平手1.046 k& w$ f/ J" E" D3 @. O* ]
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
  y- E) g1 T1 l. l8 \1 ^     7 G% k" e+ i0 t6 w5 e) D
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
) V7 z' P7 ?/ z9 m* V# _     初盘:0.76平手1.10* q+ r( I5 F+ U- T. x3 u; b/ c
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
5 H$ ^- P5 ?& C5 ]5 ~1 {     
/ L; v! D7 m/ B4 X     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
# l' R$ v; M: N- }) k# ]7 ?4 O     初盘:0.82平手1.04
* d7 {* }4 f2 d. n( x     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98! E/ T) w/ G; f2 I: A
     / M+ C. m3 q3 [% q  ^% j8 _
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆1 E- M$ v. ?" N5 _' {& I
     初盘:0.88平手0.987 \/ d* ^4 r8 k0 g! Z3 r
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
* U. j; Y* y! Y) J$ d8 P     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。0 J1 h4 ?  p  U3 j: S/ l+ O
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
; V( U- d% L8 U1 J! p! D+ P     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
6 [7 E! N. i6 V2 b) U! B: x     / x8 z7 t: ^6 }) n! N
     三、球队表现
2 U( T3 P9 g0 c     " r. G$ M! L' w5 a) N
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。/ L: z; g. k, W& U
     7 Q2 l0 {' v# Y9 ~& u: r
     四、投注要点8 W. y( |) j, b/ u5 |; E% w8 l: l! |
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败  t% _! G2 g9 Z4 p. l
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头# h4 D/ a; F' q- b+ D4 I* f
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败, T$ n7 S4 b7 Z/ D
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大" b8 d& I; T. T: S$ b
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任2 h) }7 e/ a# w* l4 p
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大6 m' t1 }6 k0 K. u( ?
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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