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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季(转)
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最近,在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下,山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
4 }# v6 W, D n5 k u新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头?0 S' N" @( G- y& d4 u0 {
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位,今年也不例外。事实上,BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上,创下新的周期高点。* w- I' @- o6 v$ K0 L
4 O& U6 T% o; r7 D4 V2 u然而,今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下,人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产,以利用短期波动。然而,BTC.D 却一路走高。2 h) k3 Y2 h: p6 }, n
% L9 j P7 T0 T( Q这是市场的转折点吗?宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性,而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC,山寨季指标下跌5 U$ c& L, r9 T4 _# @$ w
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系,我们需要退一步来看。 S4 ^ r( M; X( n0 N; u8 q
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在 2022 年熊市期间,一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌,导致年度净亏损 65%,并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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有趣的是,同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言,ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动,甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破,在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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6 u4 V; f. H6 x; o o7 W: Z简而言之,包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲,短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。
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$ b8 f9 {+ H# B+ o6 m三年后,形势发生了逆转。, O: p' R$ Y7 N7 @% O
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这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点,山寨币的月度损失达到两位数,而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时,宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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发生了什么变化?机构资本.8 G4 j {: t+ R& A* b
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且,他们对BTC的偏好,将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚,使其主导地位持续上升。$ K, W& I; q2 Z) A- d! a6 N* S
) O8 {# m' c* N9 f& l零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性,许多人选择将资金投入BTC,以长期稳定性,而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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3 Q4 w( U$ s$ f; `9 s因此,只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在,山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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( h; c, C! B0 k$ [山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上5 ?5 Y8 {. s6 t7 ~# a d
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季,它不再受“炒作”驱动,而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次,像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链,索拉纳[SOL],XRP 可能会引领潮流。
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5 C! l. V% d6 m4 Y这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础,并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。7 P; h; j! c, c
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XRP新的稳定币,RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名,并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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* Z7 Q1 X+ \& x! l. B& q& N尽管如此,要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞,市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此,我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。% w7 ]" y; N/ q
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在机构资金流动的推动下,比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而,在表面之下,山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且,这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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