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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
& `; K# ~# q* Y7 G0 A新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
' ^5 p; l+ ?- c0 {0 W* Z六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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$ [9 w" ~8 B! y3 [( @- Q6 ?6 ~然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。
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% ~5 U2 ]* `6 s6 N这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?7 w7 _1 N( o* M/ V7 d9 L
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
/ j; J. C9 G( l要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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) u" w8 r, q8 I# K" f3 ?' q& ]在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。" W( M& |; ~8 j. d2 P5 E1 p s5 S b
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有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。$ r3 Y0 ^5 |* W* P
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。& p0 ~8 b% k. L" F9 a: u8 F4 w: _
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三年后，形势发生了逆转。% k" y+ C. H2 r6 I; @
$ ] h7 P- Q9 [3 ~& L& s+ P这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。! r2 U7 X# Y; }. h! F4 {
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.9 D! ~6 p* w* M$ d( X0 `1 y* V* v
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。
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% t# @0 Z* l6 N2 f1 }零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。, U" {9 K% f; K8 Y2 q
' p2 V+ J, I2 ] l' e7 E: `0 n因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。
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$ R8 F. E, E+ c( o$ t4 X山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上1 y7 }# i. H y6 c, g% n% ?3 R8 @
我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。6 H7 V: [- J8 m* ]+ z0 B3 M! [! E
& E3 ^$ j t- h) H3 }这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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* n" E# T N5 x* g, z9 @3 yXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。( }. g& y4 ^7 f4 z# [
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。, m9 J: V1 A. d* q
6 w5 s- \5 P6 L, B* o" w/ ~( e, ^在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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