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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
+ t G* E# v" i+ r4 b新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？
7 }* Q. [5 T4 d7 i六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。/ x! d* \5 L2 |, @
& ]& e- Z3 G. `) a然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。1 K2 T/ J4 F6 J! v
$ t' m7 z1 w0 T0 z% g0 v( T: q
这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币? @0 W, ^$ O" c3 F" x- f4 X6 J% d
$ k7 q+ k! a" O随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
3 O' {& n( ?7 N* W% ~, m- E& B# w要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
3 q8 ?6 q9 ]/ O' J% h0 q
- ]) j0 O8 h3 r7 K9 S在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
1 D! r+ }6 U( C; n3 @# R' N2 J4 m# ^% c5 _4 H* w" v! }/ u
有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。
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8 u7 M4 R/ Q$ c0 w% ~% q( |简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。* r6 I9 B& X5 f& ^& l1 c3 ^! O) a! J% t
; ?6 O' M; s! U- M- K& r三年后，形势发生了逆转。
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9 G! A. P) A! L! \# p& V这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。% x/ o4 @& C+ W G( r3 Y- @
1 w$ q3 q! z0 v( _) `发生了什么变化？机构资本.
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。' z" P; R( [- z% ?
5 U7 q- H8 J5 n零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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" R9 l: D8 k/ z% m+ N% {因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。. I4 d6 T! k! z/ ^
1 H0 T: }3 W* m% p山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
. H- F/ `6 y$ E- R我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。8 r8 U H1 _+ j' l4 e2 v
$ V' N& x: l" r8 B j这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。( D8 J, S* \ O: C+ b
1 P* {( q/ F8 KXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。$ M$ E$ B* Y1 x. j7 h
2 g3 y0 F* B4 O1 Q9 d% K* |尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。) l! u( |2 ]) `+ K
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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