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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。
5 n) d" N; O5 u/ i" o尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。
7 b2 F8 C9 ^. t: Z; D! K. h' e过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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5 P) ^- e& S" y其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。( i M6 s" f8 y. `# t) u
5 V" _; _9 z( I. ?) t* A4 q* DAdler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。”
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. q" p- T3 q- N! z$ \. O; p平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。
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% Q% [: D# n. e因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。" `6 B1 M# t5 G* t2 M
& A7 y C ?$ h& `" U0 C5 h' Q kBTC 图表暗示了什么
" Q! V# G# ?, t$ e, f) b% g* W# {+ @4 {虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。 Z# s3 d* E4 M* C
; m l; u% u' t' I, _# n首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。: ?( f5 O6 E) ?# K% W: P
/ K% m6 X u4 j2 W- ~从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。
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) O: {9 r2 Z& m% q当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。/ [" n" `, f( q5 l6 E: }' r
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最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
3 {+ \) S( m; J0 ^% ?, J: S; A2 V, ]! I
最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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. U2 H) X, c5 r. ^截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。' G$ \/ V$ w' R2 _7 w. U3 N+ b
) K1 G- A* ]' x8 I# S8 L9 z( X, E9 c! k/ B简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。- J& }* T- Z3 H: l% Q& v9 ^- S
/ K5 Z3 E4 X% j+ f( T2 i如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。; p' I- q* N% {. x, \4 m: H
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