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加息75基点就怕了？美联储还有更大的后招
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香港万得通讯社报道，美联储主席鲍威尔上周就通过货币政策抗击通胀表达了强硬立场，但分析师担心其持续收紧政策的潜在威胁。这在一定程度上也呼应了为何美股最近「跌跌不休」。
美联储主席鲍威尔警告说，随着美联储继续大幅加息，美国经济将面临「一些痛苦」，市场因经济衰退的可能性增加而再次抛售。
在此之后，全球市场出现抛售，原因是货币政策收紧明显是提前进行的，这可能加剧经济衰退的风险，因为政策制定者将重点放在联邦基金利率上，将其作为抗击通胀的关键工具。
然而，总部位于伦敦的跨境资本公司(CrossBorder Capital)的分析师在周二的一份研究报告中指出，由于美联储缩减资产负债表，或者说量化紧缩，对经济产生了不对称的影响，「量化流动性维度」被忽视了。
"美联储认为QT/QE就像‘空调装置’在背后运转，但我们认为QT是一个破坏装置，最终将逆转为另一场量化宽松，"其执行长Michael Howell在报告中称。
在鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔发表讲话之前，CrossBorder警告称，美联储行动过程中出现"重大政策失误"的风险正在增加，特别是"过度QT对金融稳定的影响"。
量化紧缩是央行用来减少流动性和收缩资产负债表的一种货币政策策略，通常是通过出售政府债券或允许其到期，并将其从银行的现金余额中移出。
CrossBorder Capital认为，各国央行过快地从金融市场吸走太多流动性。Howell指出，近期一些欧洲央行政策制定者的立场转向强硬，可能引发欧元不稳定。
「我们担心的是，量化紧缩/QT对金融稳定的影响过大，拟议的美联储资产负债表收缩近三分之一相当于基准利率增加约5%」他说。
「在2023年的某个阶段，美联储将被迫重新调整其资产负债表，让美元贬值。在达到这一点之前，未来几个月将出现更大的量化紧缩。这应该会吓到市场。」
对QT的担忧得到了Mazars首席分析师George Lagarias的呼应，他敦促交易商和投资者忘掉鲍威尔在Jackson Hole的讲话，转而关注美联储资产作为唯一的领先指标。
美联储将其量化紧缩上限从450亿美元提高到950亿美元。与此同时，欧洲央行将在9月结束量化宽松政策，不过已出台一项计划，以限制负债累累的成员国和负债较少的成员国之间的借贷利率分化。
与此同时，投资者应该担心美联储立场的长期影响。经济放缓可能演变成严重的经济衰退。通货膨胀可能会变成通货紧缩。
当美联储在2018年削减其债券投资组合时，几乎重演了2013年的「缩减恐慌」(taper tantrum)——市场大幅抛售，促使美联储缓和政策，放慢了国债出售的步伐。
来源：金色财经 |
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