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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘( H) N v. t9 b" D
" h3 v' h- E+ _! L6 s
平手中水,主队有利
& V3 m% |+ s9 i0 S 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
( S9 b/ [3 P* `5 v( ^0 o; |3 \2 j 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:+ F0 W4 j# O9 s( N; s8 D
英超主队; U) V# x: I F5 x7 l. F8 B
胜:13场 48%6 n! s5 ^! E& g% `
平:5场 17%
! D7 [5 p3 M9 Q: {7 z) |" l1 Z- P" M 负:9场 35%
- f; W( h$ P4 [; \# Q% F! W' L6 X 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
: B" R# S1 B/ s5 f0 {6 @ $ t' ^" h* l) ^
一、初盘阶段, s+ k7 ` ^8 k9 e5 T
具体到水位如下:
* j6 m/ \' ?$ r6 H+ c' O3 [ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负* S* H. F" o6 b s
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
* q# s% x* ]! \. ?4 w9 A( K 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负( J6 j# W4 s/ N! c. @* ^
' B3 U4 L1 x9 V& M1 B1 F+ H
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
1 H' {3 B& n+ m6 E. K9 D 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。5 V0 K" ]; D8 l3 G5 N: f4 N! J
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。& I2 k0 l4 r. j' t# W/ F# [
, u" U; E. ^5 I5 c- t 二、临场阶段
; O3 ?! _% G ^( ~) K8 P9 m Z ( q( q; R* I8 D* {9 y+ p. y" I
具体到变盘和水位如下:
# h; j( {7 _0 {0 B 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
$ @1 U. Z: ]7 r 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
3 t& x; z2 l: {* |3 _
$ N, l' H" o, }4 X 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。 Z) O- q# e" z+ X$ f! C: j
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:% H: s! w( k: y: J# s! m4 [+ m
- R( B% J2 l5 K7 }9 K3 k1 @8 j 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
1 Y; L: q" _+ m/ ?- G 初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 c9 o# v& N: T- i2 |9 \# H 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85 |. t) V' h5 X0 R3 j
1 I" `9 |3 Q( W2 }
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆! |% l4 O5 [; G7 |0 h
初盘:0.76平手1.101 ? s# T/ o* T
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91: b2 E, v- ~. U8 S3 N, b6 c/ {
: h4 [/ D3 n9 s. t3 F% I
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
. Z+ f4 a2 m2 z: p5 Y0 ^) G3 l% l5 Q 初盘:0.82平手1.04
) ~* R: [3 N3 e, j 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.987 C2 T" k) J3 e$ E5 l: `& I5 e
$ n5 M: v/ I% _, R7 k1 @
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
' b- M3 J5 O3 s F6 C' y 初盘:0.88平手0.98# s" ~! ^) V% N4 w: @2 |( h7 _
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
$ p' A3 ]4 ]. J/ b2 C0 w2 S$ R 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。. P3 D" V" @6 Z# ^' I8 j
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
- k9 Q1 ?+ c, s8 Y 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
& O! [- k/ ^, e: ^9 x
7 C) O8 D4 q- y8 I% _& P 三、球队表现; q1 m5 v9 ^4 ]8 u
$ x+ R7 |% p6 {0 J |
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。1 n# s6 A z4 t% J
1 s z$ y/ q0 l9 h5 \ 四、投注要点
! U6 H# t) v3 \! b& Y. X$ l& k) b w 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
7 I) @0 p d$ t: v$ K: I 要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 f" X B8 U' X# y7 v
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败" f4 j% o R+ |9 R. C' w
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
! X, ^' [2 _# a" G* j- n 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
b: X* ]" j7 O7 R" \$ i 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
# |! D/ m8 }# Z1 L; { 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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