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唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统上周积极进取的新关税政策使市场引起了人们的关注,加密货币投资者在全球股票指数中消除了数万亿美元后的痛苦。 周一,比特币价格在清晨交易中下跌75,000美元后略有恢复。加密货币徘徊在$ 80,000左右,在过去24小时内增长了3%。 尽管如此,随着投资者试图在特朗普领导下的新全球经济秩序中导航,还有更多的波动。关注美国债券市场是关键。 作为[url=]指出[/url]宏观专家和加密分析师林恩·奥尔登(Lynn Alden)在X上,周一债券收益率跃升,而股票市场暴跌。但是,为什么加密投资者或比特币应该照顾呢? RIA Advisors的投资组合经理Michael Lebowitz告诉解密。 “很可能,当人们出售股票时,他们不再需要与树篱的债券,因此他们也出售了债券。” 他补充说:“我总是非常小心,不要说,也许天朝正在卖出,或者他们认为关税是通货膨胀的,因为这些市场在这些市场中的波动如此之多。” 当投资者购买美国国债时,他们将获得收益率。随着国库的高需求增长,固定收入较低;当国库没有被追捕的地方时,收益率就会上升。 周一的收益率[尤其是在10年中的收益率]意味着对美国国债的需求下降。当投资者出售国库以筹集现金时,这有时会发生这种情况,这是典型的避风港,因为其他投资的价格下跌 - 在当今的情况下,股票。 通常,收益率上升的信号对增长或更高通货膨胀的期望通常反映了飞往安全或较弱的经济前景。 市场力量专家告诉解密产量的上升是更严厉的市场力量在起作用的标志,尤其是增长缓慢和对通货膨胀率更高的期望。 Amberdata衍生工具总监Greg Magadini指出,特朗普的关税可能会成为“通货膨胀力量的直接贡献者”。 “还有另一个更令人担忧的风险 - 如果不仅遇到贸易战,我们的国际债权人反对(反对)购买国库?”他说。 换句话说,正如其他国家对特朗普严格关税的报复一样,他们可以出售美国国债。 杜罗实验室(Douro Labs)首席执行官迈克·卡希尔(Mike Cahill)告诉他说:“面对股票的股票上涨,收益率会发出明确的信息:市场认为美联储的手是绑扎的。”解密。 “如果通货膨胀率证明比预期的要粘稠,那么中央银行可能别无选择,只能使状况更长的时间更长。”这“对风险资产来说并不适合”。 比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场通常与其他风险资产(如技术股票)进行交易,并且在低利率的环境中做得很好。 尽管比特币在周一下跌,但其对债券收益率上升的反应不如股票逆。 Vaneck数字资产研究负责人Matthew Sigel告诉解密虽然周一10年的财政部产生了[激增] D,但比特币反应“尤其柔和”。 他补充说:“与2022年不同,加密货币市场中的增加产量并没有引发强迫清算或波动性的浪潮,这表明BTC可能与旧的宏观敏感性脱在一起。” 最近的叙事(比特币都不像技术股票那样交易),最近再次在Crypto Twitter散发。终于发生了吗? 2 ?8 S. X; V% ~7 j0 f
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