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[虚拟币交流]
2.67 的比特币价格温度将如何影响 BTC 的未来?(转)
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比特币价格温度升至2.64点,接近过热区域。7 T3 O2 H0 m1 Y" J. Q3 v
尽管BPT上涨,但比特币在回调前仍有较大的上涨空间。+ ~8 e- d, n8 J* y2 u
过去一个月里,比特币[BTC]已飙升 17.94%,从 8.3 万美元的低点上涨至 11.1 万美元。尽管近期涨势令人欣喜,但一些利益相关者对潜在的过热现象表示担忧。
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& D$ R+ w2 v+ M" r- V6 F! r其中一位是 CryptoQuant 分析师阿克塞尔·阿德勒他曾警告称,比特币正接近过热区域。. A3 `6 ]! V) U0 o2 h; S4 {
2 G: ]5 s5 S# x* n* W1 ?Adler 在分析中观察到,比特币的价格温度已升至 2.67 点,这表明这枚王者币正接近潜在的过热区域。他补充道:
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“本周期的前两个峰值是 BPT 达到 2.75 和 3.57。” T8 }9 ~" R( B( [ d& k7 A1 e% w
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平均而言,如果 BPT 达到 3.14,BTC 温度就已进入过热区域。目前,市场距离完全过热区域仍有 0.47 个点。 t* S' U' r m! @: q' e
" E; n1 l% s0 n8 I因此,BTC 尚未达到之前的最高水平,在达到过热水平之前仍有一定的上涨空间。
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3 X6 @/ s# U' Z5 c, p+ qBTC 图表暗示了什么+ Y: [& b+ [7 f" j" `
虽然上述分析提供了乐观的前景,但必须再三核实并确定其他图表所表明的内容。: `3 R7 b3 x+ d/ k! L4 t1 H* U
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首先,看看比特币的MVRV,截至发稿时约为2.4。过去一个月,它一直在2.13和2.41左右徘徊。这些水平通常与健康的市场相关。' P( e' D' s+ U7 ~
$ h! m) L4 q9 i4 t+ ?1 J9 F从历史上看,当 MVRV 超过 3.0 时,比特币就进入过热阶段,长期持有者开始抛售。目前 MVRV 仍低于 2.5 和 3.0,表明 BTC 仍有上涨空间。
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8 x; e1 d3 h( @! M比特币的NUPL进一步证实了这一点。截至本文撰写时,NUPL处于58%或0.58,这是一个信念/否定区间。因此,由于NUPL尚未达到0.75,BTC尚未过热。$ @0 c! ] _. p7 T
6 k; W) K: ^5 R8 n% `当 NUPL 进入极度兴奋区时,就会导致获利回吐,因为持有者开始担心潜在的调整。3 O p; |% P& N2 k
, h9 d" ?; Z; d# [2 i- c3 V7 [最后,从比特币的 Pi 周期顶部来看,BTC 远未过热。值得注意的是,当 111 日移动平均线 (SMA) 突破 2 倍 350 日移动平均线时,BTC 便进入过热区域。这种情况在过去四年中从未发生过。
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最后一次交叉记录于 2021 年。
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% j: X2 F# n' v7 S6 h/ G7 p: ^2 X0 ?; k截至发稿时,350 x2 SMA 位于 16 万美元左右,而 111 DSMA 位于 9.1 万美元。因此,在两条线交汇之前,仍有进一步上涨的空间。) y5 C6 [9 x |. j7 i& z+ x
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简而言之,尽管比特币的价格已飙升至接近过热的水平,但仍有上涨空间。此外,其他市场指标也表明,BTC 可能会继续上涨。
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* o2 q3 w9 i4 }; h& p' h如果当前的上涨趋势持续下去,BTC 价格可能触及 12 万美元。然而,如果部分持有者转向获利了结,BTC 价格可能回落至 10.6 万美元。: {# b; A1 m- f, L n* T3 W; M
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