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据《投资快报》在一篇线上讨论摘要中援引的言论，经济学家洪灏预测，稳定币的市场价值在短期内有望突破1万亿美元。 洪灏是莲花资产管理公司（Lotus Asset Management）的管理合伙人。他表示，目前稳定币整体市场规模仍然较小，但随着越来越多企业进入该领域，预计将迎来快速扩张。
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港元稳定币 vs 美元稳定币洪灏指出，大多数在香港发行的稳定币很可能是以港元计价，而非以美国国债作为支撑，并援引香港金融管理局雄厚的外汇储备作为依据。 “在香港发行的稳定币可能比美国的更稳定，”洪灏表示，并强调香港在监管透明度和资源基础方面的优势。他补充称，尽管已有数家天朝科技企业获得发行稳定币的牌照，但许多市场参与者仍在制定具体的营运模式。 洪灏还指出，稳定币市场的结构可能会提升对美国国债的需求，但未来的资金流向仍取决于美国ZF的财政状况。 他特别提及过去美国稳定币出现的问题，例如USDC的脱锚事件，认为美国的监管体系尚不成熟。他将此与香港的牌照制度和货币联系汇率机制进行对比，认为香港的模式从长期来看可能提供更高的可靠性。 “美国系统中已有多次崩溃事件，”他说，“它还不够成熟，也并非完全安全。”他强调，尽管美元在稳定币早期发行阶段处于主导地位，但未来可能有其他货币成为储备锚，例如黄金、瑞士法郎或英镑。
( @( G7 \4 f4 {. w$ F7 T- \全球竞争中的跨境贸易在谈及跨境贸易时，洪灏指出，稳定币可以有效降低成本并加快交易速度，尤其适用于与天朝进行往来的海外企业。 不过，他也承认这种效率提升与监管控制之间存在张力。“稳定币的本质是去中心化支付系统，这一点需要监管机构保持高度关注，”他说。 洪灏强调，当前稳定币的活跃发展代表的是数字支付领域的长期结构性转变，而非短期风潮。“稳定币的爆发已经开始，其在日常金融生活中的作用只会越来越大，”他说道。 尽管全球稳定币政策仍在逐步成型，但其融入正式金融体系的过程，势必将考验主权控制与私人发行之间的边界。对于像香港这样的司法管辖区而言，挑战在于如何在不抑制不断演进的跨境数字支付基础设施的前提下，维持对货币的有效监管。 : |! J ~1 D3 f! C$ O0 A
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