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[lastpost] => 2759497 青铜器铭文辨伪的历史、方法与价值 1755981378 洋森
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当前离线
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。+ n4 i. R3 `! f. m) R0 D" e
+ c4 O1 H1 w* G# n n值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。& |- M2 B4 A8 A/ d/ t
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。9 v: a; [$ w+ o& ^4 c
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宏观信号依然支持; N5 M- K1 s& I
美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。2 ~8 J0 X% }3 o t1 f
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该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。( {1 i' W. Q' n+ g( T E
1 v6 t0 Q+ c- { }0 Y从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。. I4 p9 _5 M. r. ^
+ G! D$ o! N* k7 {1 ?% _% W市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.3 l/ m8 J, U9 h
2 l* K( D' ^; [$ F这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。 ]( Z5 r/ I" s! p/ ^! V% i4 u. {
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著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。7 m& D( k) A* t# D: G6 w
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他补充道，5 w0 k6 D7 D( n' G9 ]) `: a
7 x/ e4 `! k! @( t“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”
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0 a: t4 B7 R5 _8 }0 G2 ?( F' U5 J韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。
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T m" l. Y: d1 i0 X他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。9 X( ] {" u9 v* e5 {
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亚洲比特币市场再度走强+ r% v" Y. `) I* L L& c- n# b
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.- i$ E9 U& B+ d# u1 |' E3 N; k S' x
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此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
9 |8 O: b1 c% Y& e! P7 H: Q9 o/ N
3 v' R9 H9 i: H& K0 M5 I0 [; q相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。2 P2 K: J8 B: I$ \: b5 u
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然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。& C6 E) O$ a* j, v: y! z
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当前离线
经验:
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧5 u7 T) Z" q8 n% s% ]: j
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