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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘 g. h; W0 ~+ O
6 }5 u0 Q# _& I* z7 o/ B5 t 平手中水,主队有利1 I- g* s; @9 k8 c! Z0 [
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
' g$ t! U! a# _2 s 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
6 r7 ^: j& G+ [9 p4 W- I9 s 英超主队
7 m9 H3 N$ F D# b* p' [ 胜:13场 48%
; u% D( j, e, {1 {1 q 平:5场 17%
* _2 _# ^# y7 O4 V" y5 N, R 负:9场 35%* c; V4 a0 b$ L9 o, W0 c8 _. e2 C* o
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。9 f; t* G/ D ~# X
3 B5 U. O3 E& ?- }. }! V9 A. e 一、初盘阶段
9 |8 h4 Y B- f8 G' f 具体到水位如下:; e7 r: s/ \: m9 h2 z% z
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负- [# E+ i) E5 ^
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% k( B8 x- F" L& U3 \
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
( q- E5 C z A0 T5 f5 e # R8 S1 I3 B* b5 P
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。1 x0 W, U. ?& |9 l. m5 U, Q; S
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。' } m. D" z M2 T6 _
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
/ d w* z# M3 \5 @. C
) p" f+ I; B" `& m9 w4 {3 Z+ i# D3 k 二、临场阶段& [! ~4 i1 ]" @3 U9 a/ q- d
6 s# @, M w& E2 L
具体到变盘和水位如下:
9 M8 q, D3 g- ^5 l9 [8 W9 V 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
8 e- a' b; n3 D. k1 p 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
0 T9 s4 O" y$ Z6 T2 v+ Q. M 8 P" @7 y2 X: ?* I4 o
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
8 c, n+ o" ?/ r5 A* N- q 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
$ t. L- |7 U6 ^0 k4 G5 H5 q# y 4 ~9 W9 n% B: F- w" L
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 U5 e2 e* p' r8 R( P5 e; \ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 h t) z, B- } 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
8 ?+ t( F! H+ T) K
4 o# J* X5 ^( r: u* k* Y/ o' z. E; U5 l 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
( X4 T) A9 U9 Q- ? 初盘:0.76平手1.10* k, }, b* [% M
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
8 s) t6 e' V" a& o5 l% v( m
6 |: t3 A9 x9 w7 u/ Q6 u 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
, ^. I( w& C3 k8 A; @ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
! `0 e5 ?( o$ K3 B 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* N8 C' N6 [ o4 r& |; t! I 5 O) j1 g% i+ A
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
- Y8 m1 x( I$ X5 _. y 初盘:0.88平手0.98$ |: Q) y% f1 p" O% _$ {
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
5 E9 K5 e3 @+ A 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。% C# h) M7 l! f1 c
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。0 ~ S: t. k( ?1 ]
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。9 T3 d: G, H* R! L- P7 j
C' r1 g W. P9 O; X
三、球队表现
& _; s v# ?' q0 I 6 \% J5 i: ~7 U
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。# S: U9 e" b3 _5 I' j. g
9 G/ T9 c7 f, |( ]. _ 四、投注要点' l3 s) O7 {, w% u1 J* n
要点1:平手中水、主多不败8 D! F4 w4 B" k' W6 ]3 k
要点2:平手降盘、走两头" g. W2 Q: h. e( M, Y, f
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
* ~' t* N2 I) `; d 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
8 @; [4 d: L8 j \/ ^1 n 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任8 T- I+ L/ W! X' v: x1 t5 P; f
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
. @! H. Q3 y) o& o+ | 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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