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很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]1 B+ `' k8 E$ _ k2 X4 m
8 P' x% M5 n9 r3 d6 s8 Y5 F. a6 a
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。: \. ^. }, h2 w9 ^6 g4 f# G1 A& v
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。, z, u$ K5 G& A& D
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
" V$ |$ a( K0 i8 e: L8 w3 \, p' t" o+ `6 J: p7 ]/ Y/ P
[1]
, ~% O+ s! k! J" g英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。6 H) n% s Y E; M
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。
. {8 X% k4 s: `- x+ _立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
' Q+ m3 V9 R8 _9 T Y这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。$ T! ]0 K. F0 F, j" r$ T$ _% t
结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
8 k8 Z% O9 ?. y. Q' Z主胜的开法:
: v- f" N9 @& h u# J- P威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
1 I8 w4 ^- v7 x* ?9 o( E你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
4 b! x; O0 T! |5 _! \2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
4 Z2 [* o) s, a6 K" ?& _1 w主负: @; n- ~, \+ @
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。 h+ Q% E# M# h, ~
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。: H, l& H/ _) d' u! f8 T; c
平局:
+ Z) C0 M+ T$ y# W现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
: z5 |6 m3 W2 B3 y% Q! B- |1 t5 p9 ? m! F
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
U2 e, H& D& |% ]4 Z1 q, c威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。, E h) f+ H6 ]- C- k
维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。7 b4 j/ V- m; U1 V# ?: z7 F3 x
思维与上场一样。1 P& O6 P( ]# V. q
: [; t3 v* O6 e2 p% k
[3]! w1 s0 J6 c% R+ P+ n. d. \
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。: I5 ]* R& k) d2 S! f! [
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
+ ~, Z( p* t# K8 t* i8 A: B2 U立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。2 ^, ^% m8 {+ e6 i
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
! e: T: j+ s9 s广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。/ A( j& y, E4 C5 r V9 j
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。1 a& F& N9 j5 l' D( ] @
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
/ H! X [, m2 S' v, t- } [3 B. R主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。2 b' I. s, d9 g4 ~7 V. r# F/ N
5 c" q5 l& w4 S- ?3 k5 d& }, v& z
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?5 E8 |, W2 A- K- q0 p7 L
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。4 c9 E. c! a- [2 c1 m
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。, q9 u3 A4 W2 h- a8 u- L
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
6 w9 J& r: t! p/ v* h# Z$ Y( M0 s/ r7 P$ N( d8 F% m
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。* b c/ S8 N- n: q
" `) Z4 k' y, S3 A0 d: C+ o3 e' b E例如:( U0 {4 \. ?# R' k a7 a( q
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
1 `; q- e) O9 H! o4 ]双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。4 i- d6 D; X2 w( `: O# o
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。5 F: t! u. h3 ~+ P- h* A$ J
8 U7 j, f9 I% U欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。+ P8 m# F4 H& s+ q
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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