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冷风说币：出现停跌信号 ETH带头冲锋 牛要回 2022.08.06
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市场消息
8月5日，美国劳工部公布7月非农数据，新增就业总数和失业率均回到2020年2月欧美疫情爆发前的水平，新增就业52.8万人甚至较市场预期的25万翻倍。
一觉醒来，看到美国劳工部公布的7月非农数据，真的是亮瞎所有人的眼睛！在此之前的市场分析预期中，最高的市场预测值也仅30万，这意味着，华尔街在7月非农数据预测上集体“翻车”。
不管怎么说，美国7月份新增就业总数和失业率均回到2020年2月欧美疫情爆发前的水平，强劲的就业报告至少证明了一点，即美国经济还是具有弹性的，这对提振市场信心无疑是个利好。
然而，经济好消息却是市场坏消息。这话看似矛盾，实则不然，为什么？
我们在前期的早评中说过，美联储的货币政策是紧紧围绕利率和就业率这两大指标展开的，当经济萎靡，失业率上升时，美联储就会通过降息的手段刺激经济；当通胀失控，经济过火的时候，加息就是美联储的不二法宝，反之亦然。
因此，从当前宏观经济环境来看，美国国内通胀仍然居高不下，今日非农数据又如此靓丽，这就为美联储9月再次大幅度加息提供了强有力的依据。事实上美联储鹰派言论在非农数据发布前，就放出9月要连续第三次加息75个基点的论调。
总而言之，9月份美联储加息75个基点成为可能，市场之前乐观预期的50个基点或将面临巨大挑战。说多了都是扯淡，8月10日下周三，美国将公布7月CPI消费者通胀数据，这个数据将为“9月加息50个还是75个基点”指明方向，让我们一起拭目以待吧！
行情分析
BTC短线支撑22000-22500美元，短线压力23500-24000美元。美三大股指涨跌不一，外部环境一般。大饼继续在22500-23500美元狭小空间震荡，个人认为目前对多方较为有利，向上突破只是时间问题，大家逢低布局为主。向上重要压力在23500美元，只有有效突破，才能打开向上的空间。
ETH短线支撑1600-1650美元，短线压力1750-1800美元。以太整体走势强于大饼，从走势上来看，以太已经转过身来了，以逢低买入或者持有为主。主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。冷风一再强调，存量资金搏弈，局部式行情，而这局部就是山寨币。 冷风认为只要大饼稳定，山寨币才会有表现。昨天大饼给了点阳光，山寨币就出现了漫地的烂漫，这行情的主线仍然还是山寨币，大家继续重点关注。 来源：金色财经 |
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