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[lastpost] => 2749387 比特币市值超亚马逊，机构拼命买，散户却“已读不回” 1752942675 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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$ M9 r0 b* m" h1 P9 D6 E3 ]. _' d, ^ 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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# e, Y, G7 q5 x/ w; p- [( Q2 f 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。! d6 H! s% Y9 H4 i4 W3 ~
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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3 N, P- e9 C' Y$ X' j% U 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。- O: [% Y' V# q0 r/ H8 M
1 t0 \# p# h# B: [7 C$ r& V 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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$ i9 W, ]4 J5 p# m7 N1 t6 N价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。/ q" ]( b7 q9 a+ ~/ I$ u* N4 v! s; F4 ?
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间' B/ X9 c2 O1 p+ M: j' {* G( V: T
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。' H5 D8 }5 }% ]3 `) `1 A8 R, L
* M! Z& y' c6 T K “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在! t& L: R1 H2 p" a+ B2 F
! n9 P* y$ P: P- |积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”. n9 ?/ [; [+ a) S1 Y w
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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' \( D) x/ x8 f8 C3 J, D 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势- L$ Q' R0 T' ]: h# y
& u8 O. b% n1 A% |% A 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。4 }' P6 T* U' e: N2 j0 S) t
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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I: C7 v( k6 V) O# v 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，1 x7 N# o% W/ G, M5 q" O
# i: e3 `- s: W9 R9 a8 |, ]市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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