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[lastpost] => 2752228 以太坊交易量激增，重新测试关键阻力位，目标锁定 4000 美元（转） 1753844503 林武风
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能$ G* t. Q+ E' t% l/ L' h1 v
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4 Y+ | _# p3 D0 O l/ f6 ]' ~5 S成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。( h. ~- R; y: V) I- ~; ^
: F6 X+ p& |+ y1 _( D ^5 W7 N9 m例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀4 D" g+ o7 R- m8 m' \5 m- d: v1 q
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（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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- c8 ~/ D: Y4 m7 {/ T: @/ S/ ] 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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; q" }+ O6 d1 y0 n& R$ S- ]关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的7 {2 D* f: u( T r
& _. Y9 K0 k" r* u5 O. ?8 `政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀+ C( G% h5 y+ Y) _+ M4 K% L
& t5 K, g$ r% e/ T" ~' t压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。3 @$ Q/ i- C( G! E
) W+ M: W5 j( e' X( R- a今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产/ U4 a9 y) W4 }; a( V4 r
% n$ u4 F8 q) E' |& b对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战8 w7 ^6 K( |6 g+ h6 G2 Y
/ Q) }' J2 P- r& G略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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