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[lastpost] => 2752202 别被“纸黄金（ETF）”骗了！清崎再次发声：危机来时，照片里的枪开不了火！ 1753895355 天策-瑶娥
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* X! ?* o; M* ^8 v) ]/ e 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能! n0 |7 j$ n/ S4 Z7 c0 \
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀, ^) X) R( H/ x/ P
0 t( [( k$ q' g# L2 s! f( \（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。4 j, N E; |' x, x/ d4 _4 I
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。5 _3 `& b2 |" ], \( q' Z
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关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
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政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀
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3 ^8 ?, N" O3 W压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。/ ]5 T: O) c+ a
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今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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1 K# Z/ D5 k+ @; H1 W6 k" v( Q略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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7 z! |) P" {' v+ u( u看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。6 |/ O4 F* J+ A5 I8 a" W% ~
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