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[lastpost] => 2751619 两年来首次，以太坊交易资金超过比特币（转） 1753848697 舞出精彩
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能5 M% w4 A2 C8 s6 [6 W& U3 S
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成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。+ u! L4 T+ k0 F% Z0 s5 g
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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: g7 X% r. j. S( |$ j7 h% D（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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3 Q# ^( T8 L2 t' l) F关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
( T8 N5 V0 b& ~* u/ B4 `8 v5 C' ~* z1 K+ V) i' E
政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀9 g( z, q9 K1 H( K# K$ |0 L4 O
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压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。- s) O4 {$ Q1 H" Z
& E3 q( v# O3 @9 O6 N* \1 q今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产. w$ E, h, ]# O6 B. l. ?
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对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战
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; h+ |. z2 c4 _( L* ?2 z略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。( a) C. T- D: P" y' m
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