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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格预测：汇丰量子测试 Kraken IPO热议 BlackRock ETF重塑市场情绪-转
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比特币（$BTCUSD）周五交易价格接近109,400美元，上涨1%，但整体市场情绪保持谨慎，因为金融和技术领域的新发展与加密市场交汇。汇丰宣布成功测试量子计算用于算法债券交易，预测准确率提高34%。 尽管该银行称这是一项早期实验，但测试引发了关于长期加密安全性的疑问。一些开发者表示，“量子日”（Q-Day）——量子计算可能破解现有加密的时刻——最早可能在2030年到来。对于比特币而言，这强调了量子抗性升级的必要性，此举可能增强其作为价值存储的信心。 Kraken 5亿美元融资点燃IPO热议对加密基础设施的投资者信心正在增强。据《财富》报道，Kraken以150亿美元估值筹集了5亿美元。尽管该交易所尚未向SEC提交S-1文件，但更完善的财务披露暗示其正在为IPO做准备。
) W1 } I- i8 K" b" Y8 wKraken成立于2011年，日交易量约19亿美元，位列全球前15大交易所。其以150亿美元估值完成5亿美元融资，紧随加密市场IPO热潮：Gemini在纳斯达克上市时认购超额20倍，Circle首次亮相估值翻倍至10亿美元，区块链借贷公司Figure也获得强劲需求。这一趋势凸显机构对受监管的主流加密资产的日益增长的兴趣，可能进一步推动比特币需求。 * _+ G: z/ G' l
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BlackRock收益ETF标志机构转变管理超9万亿美元资产的BlackRock正准备推出比特币高级收益ETF。与其规模870亿美元的iShares比特币ETF（IBIT）不同，新产品将通过卖出比特币期货的看涨期权为投资者创造收益。彭博社的Eric Balchunas称其为“IBIT的续集”，指出BlackRock刻意聚焦比特币和以太坊，避开其他山寨币ETF。此举可能解决比特币缺乏收益生成的长期批评，吸引养老基金和注重收益的投资者。 * F- o/ T& k/ m1 q* ?
5 @, F0 W# j7 ~" q比特币技术分析：关键点位需关注技术面上，比特币仍承压。在4小时图上，价格跌破下降通道，未能收复50日和100日简单移动平均线（约113,500美元）。持续的较低高点表明空头控制局面。 K线形态强化了这一偏见。在116,000美元处出现射击星形态引发反转，随后出现看跌吞没形态和“三只黑乌鸦”形态——教科书式的延续信号。
( p6 P g$ F0 I2 I" l相对强弱指数（RSI）接近32，显示超卖状态，但无看涨背离。支撑位在107,300美元，若下跌动能持续，进一步下行目标为105,200美元和102,800美元。 - 低于113,000美元保持看空偏见
- 首个下行目标：107,300美元
- 延伸目标：105,200美元–102,800美元
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对于新手来说，可以将此视为一个向下趋势的楼梯。每次反弹都越来越弱，表明买家无法重新掌控，除非比特币果断收盘于113,000美元上方 . M O( r. X! b7 I- c
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