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[lastpost] => 2770706 比特币也是逼近12万美元了啊 1759400279 jackcool1011
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比特币达到 11.9 万美元峰值：超买 RSI 与机构牛市（转）
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比特币价格一度触及119,500美元的峰值，周涨幅接近10%，但技术指标预示着近期可能出现盘整。关键动量指标相对强弱指数（RSI）在四小时图上达到90/100，自7月以来首次进入“超买”区域。这一水平历来与市场转折点相关，促使交易员预期市场将出现回调或重新测试支撑位。热门交易员Roman指出，这种走势与长期价格目标（LTF）模式相符，并强调“一切都处于超买状态，但没有初步疲软迹象”表明市场将出现可控的回调，而非急剧的逆转。比特币触及 119.5 万美元，但 RSI 警告 BTC 价格即将回调[1].9 `7 o3 {" `3 i W5 O* k+ o- a3 t& c
) A1 Q0 q8 H+ o a7 j此次上涨与大量资金流入美国同时发生。
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交易所交易基金 (ETF) 三天内净流入 16 亿美元。贝莱德旗下 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 飙升至资产规模前 20 大 ETF，为总规模贡献了 6 亿美元。分析师 Caleb Franzen 强调，根据 IBIT/SPY 比率追踪，比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间存在看涨背离，表明机构投资者的信心持续存在。“成交量、RSI 和 MACD 指标看好比特币在未来几天继续上涨至 12.4 万美元，”Roman 补充道，但他承认，需要持续的动能才能避免出现更深的回调。比特币触及 119.5 万美元，但 RSI 警告 BTC 价格即将回调[1].
0 {" q, b1 F$ Z/ X5 T来自多个来源的技术分析强化了短期回调的可能性。日线图上，相对强弱指数（RSI）保持高位，而斐波那契回撤位和上升通道形态表明，潜在的支撑位在113,500美元至112,850美元之间。跌破110,800美元可能引发进一步下跌，但分析师强调，整体上涨趋势依然完好。cryptodaily.co.uk的一篇报告指出：“此次回调可能作为下一轮上涨前的盘整阶段。”该报告还指出，比特币交易所储备已降至238万美元的历史低点，这表明抛售压力有所减弱，投资者信心增强。随着外汇储备下降，比特币价格即将升至 115,000 美元[2].
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短期风险包括重新测试113,500美元的水平，如果未能守住这一关口，则可能导致价格跌至111,349美元。如果比特币收于113,500美元上方，下一个阻力位是115,008美元和116,031美元，突破这两个水平则可能延续涨势，直至117,577美元。然而，空头仍需保持警惕，因为如果价格达到115,000美元，15.8亿美元的空头仓位可能面临清算。随着外汇储备下降，比特币价格即将升至 115,000 美元[2]与此同时，包括美联储降息预期在内的更广泛的市场环境也增加了短期前景的复杂性，尽管大多数分析师认为回调只是暂时的回调，而不是看跌逆转。% I a, r! r% `% q {
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看涨基本面与超买技术面的相互作用，凸显了比特币当前的关键位置。尽管ETF流入和机构投资者的采用提供了坚实的基础，但RSI的警告信号表明需要谨慎。建议交易者密切关注113,500美元的水平，因为该水平的守住或跌破可能决定下一阶段上涨的走势。目前，市场似乎已准备好重新测试关键支撑位，尽管短期波动，但整体趋势仍保持稳定。
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