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[虚拟币交流]
比特币跌破 STH 成本基础 – 为什么这可能是买入信号？（转）
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过去24小时内，比特币价格持续在10.6万美元至10.8万美元之间徘徊。在经历了又一个动荡的交易周（价格下跌3.41%）之后，这一顶级加密货币目前表现出一定的稳定性。值得注意的是，比特币在此修正阶段的走势触发了一个有趣的链上信号，具有看涨意义。( U$ z, h2 D; N T2 M, q! @
7 q) A" k5 O( P比特币短期持有者陷入困境，但历史数据显示看涨迹象
- A' t* S! l, d/ V在一个X 帖子10月18日，著名市场分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）分享了重要的链上动态。马丁内斯指出，在近期价格下跌的背景下，比特币跌破了其短期持有者（STH）的实现价格，这为基于历史数据的市场积累创造了理想的条件。; y$ u% \0 z3 M
; [8 W" Y R6 M: h- G具体来说，STH 实际价格代表短期投资者（即持有 BTC 时间少于 155 天的钱包）持有币的平均收购价格。通常，当市场价格跌破该水平时，表明新进入市场的参与者资金不足，表明市场出现局部投降和短期恐慌。& ?4 W6 d4 x) B3 V* ] l* _
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根据马丁内斯分享的Glassnode数据，比特币在10月14日的最新价格回调中跌破了其STH实现价格。虽然这种情况通常会引发暂时的抛售压力，但历史数据显示，这也成为了战略买家的提示。" R! h0 p, F( m
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具体来说，价格跌破 STH 实现价格似乎与市场强劲的反弹点相吻合。值得注意的是，上图显示了此前四个案例（2023 年 5 月、2023 年 11 月、2024 年 8 月和 2025 年 5 月），比特币跌破 STH 实现价格后均出现了大幅反弹。
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马丁内斯解释说，这种价格下跌通常为市场积累提供了良好的机会，从而推动未来的价格上涨。有趣的是，更广泛的比特币市场仍然由长期持有者主导，他们可能会利用这个价格区间来加强他们的持股，从而维持目前的看涨结构。
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牛市仍在继续) G7 F# O, i" u7 k6 F, Z- Z, `
在其他新闻中，一位名为 Titan of Crypto 的市场分析师最近表示在最近价格下跌之后的看跌猜测中，比特币牛市依然活跃。加密货币巨头对 38.2% 斐波那契回撤位的积极市场洞察力，已成为当前市场周期中决定价格方向的关键水平
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分析师指出，只要比特币的周线图保持在这个水平之上，更广泛的牛市就会继续保持活跃。截至发稿时，比特币价格为 106,800 美元，较前一日小幅下跌 0.40%。与此同时，比特币日交易量下降 61%，市值降至 393 亿美元。- j: c9 w% j, M' s( \
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