×
Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 114
[oldrank] => 114
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 42 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
* ]1 \. l/ J N# u4 }* V8 F3 O
很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]
+ h$ ~& z% w' h/ F! A* f7 a6 f& B9 U; ~7 C! }3 @- ]
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。- _1 u0 \ T& E! V% O1 {
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。9 W# D* m) I" X& s9 |4 c M
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。
9 H O# x2 B6 m* `) B. R6 w$ A0 o, _
[1]
; s. s/ ~) i; \( z英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
9 y& |6 A8 o- t+ T威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。: h9 l5 [9 D; f3 M3 D/ x* U7 ]
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
3 S( h1 J+ M. E9 }. @( e3 L这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
. \ `; G6 E/ F, g7 Q* |结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。3 x; s. \# ^7 H( h5 l, N5 J
主胜的开法:
5 t, d* {4 c9 r% u威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
k7 q8 A6 S6 t- d+ [你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
6 C+ [6 \$ B' J2 b4 F2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
' D- y6 C+ A1 u' b主负:5 H: ?4 ]! M% v" `1 L% V* |
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。3 X( J- A Y9 ~* Z, i! r9 W9 c
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。$ o* ?, c P" h. `9 h: ^
平局:) z2 \' k Y4 n
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
$ n! h1 w" x/ n
% G/ q% `; c4 O% ?[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
. ~5 N9 B( O ?! G, b+ R" Q威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
( N5 f( G5 e' e维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。( F5 t* @/ b, x% G
思维与上场一样。
R3 n0 A/ y) Z( c0 @0 u5 r( \2 }2 ?
[3]# O9 m0 Z& x$ Y' P; v2 e( a' @ |
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。
/ N7 ^; F$ ^- p威廉:1.28/4.5/8。0 X: r: U: ~4 w3 B
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。3 @; _' t2 |, Y+ T+ u J7 d: {
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。; U7 ^2 g. [, a' j) k7 g
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。7 s: ~( P& @# D. J: c+ Q
主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。( u( T* s) [- _2 c' x3 @
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
' x! k; S; m. j/ |8 K! U6 B0 y8 r主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。( F; J1 s6 {7 D# ?6 n' k
# e1 I# C- x' u) L9 Y2 k. _
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?8 U1 P# t* q E" b7 z4 `
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
8 j3 ?. x" |- D' A: R" \同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。
0 P/ d" r# t* e4 R2 p以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。# X# {0 ?5 g) n& R% v$ Y
|+ w" c; _3 s$ y很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。! o, @: G6 i2 o9 H0 v
3 j$ ^7 C, O. b% J例如:
( _6 m& k4 Q! s( {0 {+ q. D西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
" \' @1 h5 w/ j双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
# N) @; p7 M( K- Y% O所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。6 {, a2 x9 t: B( K
2 m2 M: A6 `, k- J# }8 a n
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
, Y+ a+ g0 Q( k. y当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 810 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1116 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4844 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|