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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘/ p. n) k+ F* J- ^) l+ ]+ ]
     ( C  E9 v& Y( p' R% {$ P' `
     平手中水,主队有利* U* U5 M- s8 q3 Q2 R! Y
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。4 B/ Z3 r5 q3 u. F- F( r5 J6 m; |# |
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:9 e3 ^  \" y% w' V. P# I! W9 |- l
     英超主队. E. U9 g5 K$ n$ x& K, N
     胜:13场 48%
2 ~3 h% I  l( A6 O# U% X6 f     平:5场 17%( G; x8 a0 r, C% W# S
     负:9场 35%
4 K& H0 T6 E( o7 }( x" z     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。+ R% y# ^7 q3 t: s9 }" A( J
     
, Q5 E+ l& h/ v$ P5 F1 s3 d/ }, y     一、初盘阶段7 f5 _; }4 g5 P1 I$ Q# t: y- Q) H5 K
     具体到水位如下:, |# n7 P, I( i. T' [' z
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
) H$ N  w. H- p* I( }     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负2 J4 l( X# C& O0 R
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
, Y4 j0 r1 \" h" P     
7 E$ F1 W, ]# M; w1 H# J- o     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
* P6 D  g% B4 e0 n* z     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
4 B& j5 A* n9 R, J8 b     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
6 ~) m2 [" i# r7 m  _$ Z8 n2 {& [6 c     . v! W1 N2 X9 B1 n0 x
     二、临场阶段- k& f2 t# `% L+ ]" I
     8 |5 J/ p' n4 a( t$ W6 X: q) x1 P
     具体到变盘和水位如下:7 h8 n9 I5 Z' d' Z+ d& I1 r
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
0 U2 a( i8 y3 C4 _     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
1 q! @' j' W3 @6 O9 s) Y     " S' b- D( J, b0 G1 t
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。( j  V8 Z3 F& `& c8 }
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
# Y( H4 \5 `8 S) o$ C     
- h* \+ ]  U5 \  O# ~3 c" _; o     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
' u! d  ^5 I. {4 G     初盘:0.82平手1.044 l. f7 S0 T2 X. v8 q
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85% S8 p7 h6 T+ m- \& c6 S0 n! g
     7 I  I; N- H9 U3 f& c/ i
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆$ ~' S3 `7 d9 y/ I
     初盘:0.76平手1.10* L& Z( h: P/ f; v8 \
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91" p. X# [# J3 }
     
' Y* Z) l% F5 K! R0 o     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
2 x( @. ^; d, l8 T! |     初盘:0.82平手1.04
( h$ z" ]. A; ^. t5 v; X* i     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
  A# }/ j: ]3 G6 e, s) r: j     5 ], F% D! i8 L; ]0 m
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆" a- i, }$ |& z$ Z+ ^5 H
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
* e* ?7 z0 H, r     终盘:1.12平/半0.74, B+ \  V: O6 Y
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
! z2 E4 O+ z; z' W8 O1 }0 r4 C     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。' T+ a# p$ P/ G: R5 h
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。" v& p" X' z( N' \
     6 z( \5 }! w( \; W$ }
     三、球队表现
9 {' f, C* E' t( ^: X     
3 x- C6 W' w$ Z* X6 Y: K     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
! F* O+ m$ h) b- O" A7 L5 C     ( W9 R! l2 p" Q. ~1 O7 m
     四、投注要点2 ?9 Q* T+ [; l! [5 X6 S2 s
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
0 r8 d( o1 C  [. m1 V+ w0 ~     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
- _3 U+ O3 o* r; i& z; V! M     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败/ e, j) \$ L, V. i
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大7 n! i4 @; z% U# ^
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
% I' }* s: B9 z# ?: l     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大8 q( O6 B# v: m* f6 j* P* ?
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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