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[lastpost] => 2758058 以太坊的涨势看起来比 2020 年更健康，但仍有一个担忧（转） 1755570892 小钱儿
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的3 u- I, l- R# [, j+ \0 }
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
5 K5 p' m3 L) _+ p& m& e短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
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6 l0 q" X, I" E比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内
# h$ v5 G- M% v实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。9 d% i, J4 a, L7 P
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然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。# p# h8 p2 o5 l* J# c, m
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STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 ; [ i, j' \% P" B
8 S8 O8 c' d% y& G3 V尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。& B) m) h8 D9 \: B! h+ |
* k+ G0 D: e- f8 Q1 F/ j! _这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。: j7 J1 `0 B" H7 O3 V
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比特币价格结构和风险区域
! w9 T E4 w. P发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。
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这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。
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布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。% a$ c3 O' X8 k9 h) v) W' s1 k5 f
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。" C) D6 i# d- x
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这对比特币趋势意味着什么
! Q4 k- z; k8 U0 p: G未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。
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如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。4 v5 C) M$ R3 \8 m) S
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总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。5 `0 d: [& B0 P b8 U; X& ~
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