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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。8 x% c7 ~5 n" d) s3 r6 H2 Z
随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。7 ]3 }6 o4 l# `( p# r2 D
宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。
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经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。; i& r0 a9 K) q
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。
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9 m2 a1 a6 u$ d/ h据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?
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! p8 T. j) z, w4 j0 E! B- J5 ]( QFUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲
- G- y4 q3 V+ g; R别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。
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过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。7 h6 K% j7 v" M+ F" ? X8 j, {
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风险资产回应迅速地。9 _# W' p( v l# v1 [
5 L, Z7 g$ p# d: w9 ?. ~2 }2 B0 T道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。% r5 r7 S- g% i; ` i
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黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。
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当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。2 e9 m1 n) ^6 H- c; {6 ]7 S' T# J+ h9 s
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然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。# d J' @0 r7 k
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交易员越来越聪明
; F% Z; B' U9 o4 H6 M尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。
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这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。* ]; N7 _0 T$ |2 Q0 G$ ]8 D
" |/ V% p. I- a' Y2 A但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。& K% u* I$ D T$ k, t. M9 @
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举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。+ Q) x9 A, V1 v1 U
& ~& i4 [0 R. L, L3 I, m' x3 |当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。- c; H$ P9 }; l& a
2 \$ n9 [+ S! o h; P8 j尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。
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与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。
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: X5 ^! Q; C/ S4 |* @通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。
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# }8 G& R! _, C9 U( Y& K# y) L/ G: l加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。
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