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[虚拟币交流]
比特币在恐慌与不确定性中保持强势:BTC 如何避免进一步亏损(转)
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比特币下跌 7% 表明宏观压力不断上升,市场正在重新调整。. q' X: F, t! p
随着避险资金流的增强,金价仍距历史高点仅 2%。* Q( O. G- `$ L5 a) W7 O( ^$ e+ J
宏观恐惧与不确定性(FUD)又回到了讨论中,但说实话,它从未真正消失过。反过来,比特币[BTC]再次成为众矢之的。! v# y4 _/ H+ D5 z
0 d) b0 u2 E2 W9 Z }, E/ q5 h$ c& i经过三天的深度去杠杆后,“10 万美元有风险吗?”的讨论又重新活跃起来。
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然而,BTC 并没有持续下跌太久。它强劲反弹 3%,再次测试 10.5 万美元大关,而这一走势看起来并非昙花一现。# d+ E4 [" d" g1 [8 |
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据AMBCrypto称,交易员似乎正在从过去的市场震荡中吸取教训,将之前的恐惧转化为策略。如果真是这样,这是否意味着大众最终会变得更加聪明?2 `0 y% z1 f6 D& a5 A. O
7 G9 k' Y+ V. |' ~FUD 情绪升温,BTC 表现强劲
* |+ x1 n- ^4 _# M/ X! f, R6 x( G别误会,这并非典型的关税引发的市场恐慌与不确定性。目前正在上演的是两个中东国家之间的全面冲突,这两个国家都是OPEC的重要成员国。2 e0 B) M+ ]6 a6 T1 L
( G. G* P% l) U' Y0 i过去两个月里,油价已上涨近40%,与伊朗相关的原油基准价格在过去24小时内飙升近5%。这一切都发生在距离联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下次决议不到一周之际。. K2 L$ q a2 G* x) g, m
# X* z7 ^: L: O风险资产回应迅速地。
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道琼斯指数下跌近 900 点,随着资本防御性地转向债券,10 年期美国国债收益率下跌近 3%,美元指数 (DXY) 下跌约 3%,反映出全球市场正在降低风险。
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黄金[XAU]也做出了回应,在避险需求激增的背景下,上涨近4%,至3,432美元。从技术面来看,黄金目前已近在咫尺,距离重返历史高点仅剩2%。 g* M/ I: u1 C5 X9 g! H
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当然,有些人会指出比特币7%的跌幅,并称这证明“韧性”论调正在崩盘。考虑到围绕加息可能暂停的“预期”不断升温,这种担忧也合情合理。1 J% \0 y, Q5 D. n" s
2 [! [& s/ f4 F0 T6 R! [然而,市场定位却揭示了一个更加微妙的故事。它表明,这与其说是屈服,不如说是重新调整。
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交易员越来越聪明
4 C7 f7 f! Z- [- C& M, e* D尤其, 机构流动已悄然再次转为看涨,不到一周的时间,就有近 13 亿美元流入现货比特币 ETF。+ m+ }. i& U- D
9 R5 h5 E0 b K7 l6 z. h这种流入起到了关键的减震器的作用,支持 BTC 从低点迅速回升 3%。& w' u. ~4 g( Z g' D6 \6 G8 s
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但最大的不确定因素是什么?衍生品交易员。与以往不同,过去未平仓合约 (OI) 过热预示着拥挤,并会导致大幅清算,而这次期货市场保持着惊人的克制力。
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举个例子:5月23日,BTC创下11.1万美元的历史新高,而持仓量(OI)则达到803.1亿美元的峰值。然而,这种泡沫最终引发了市场剧烈的崩盘,导致BTC回落至100,424美元。" b: W# l+ g5 S
B6 \5 m) o- p7 K* r" K当然,现在宣布确认反弹还为时过早,但这些迹象值得注意。* O6 E# |3 X+ D2 \
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尽管在恐慌与不确定性(FUD)爆发前,比特币的看涨势头有所增强,但其持仓量并未达到峰值,即便市场一度逼近历史新高。这种克制表明,市场持仓结构正在日趋成熟。9 R( l5 U2 \/ x
( L+ ?& k7 K: ~ B3 @+ B与……相比以太坊[ETH],BTC参与者此次采取了更为谨慎的态度。: @ `, P2 T( w; W7 V5 K+ r! w
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通过控制杠杆,他们大大降低了连锁清算事件的风险,有可能挽救数百万美元的损失。
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( R( E6 R9 z* A0 z2 I9 ?, n加上机构资金流入的强劲吸收,金价再次跌破 10 万美元的可能性现在看来越来越小。
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