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' |! h' ^4 Z4 O3 a$ ?2 {0 s很好的文章,转发给大家看。
[欧赔最优解]
2 S" x4 g4 D* u0 J9 p Q3 Q* I# R2 u, L4 z" v
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。: I" i7 G4 A8 e9 U) ] z
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。% @% U( I9 U" n9 S0 S& k1 S' y
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。% J% d2 j8 n- o, b
- u( ?' X* K( q) C. Z( b6 F* T[1]. k/ c* J* }, O* |- I
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。; b {; ?9 P+ }. b
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。
0 K- ]9 g% _. F, Q8 | q立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
; d2 I4 {8 t* n& G4 c这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
0 |; h2 X5 R% @1 }; l: ~结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。- d0 Z$ O. k6 W
主胜的开法:
" b7 Y. w% v j: X威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
) D" ]6 }5 L% u8 ~9 N& g! S7 q" M$ t你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
- W$ o" c" Y; A( z$ A4 F2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
+ f t( G. B3 G9 N" q8 h2 K主负:
. C0 }# Y9 C7 R% Z9 A威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。
- z. @4 h0 I' O0 [! C5 E, v- M: q去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。; n8 m5 x; p3 ]% I
平局:
- j/ P5 E8 Z+ A2 ~" p$ L- d, ?3 C' e现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。% P$ q5 S& |7 t5 Z* r
* y7 l: _7 D9 F% q$ X- _/ z! a
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
/ F4 h0 T l# b0 Z威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
n& z+ L% _+ o7 o2 n维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。5 T' a# ]/ W" P( Z( I1 u U4 |" D! H
思维与上场一样。9 J3 t+ i4 Z( e
) m v. c! P5 w& e[3]
, I3 X3 P5 x% w7 m西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。) F2 t/ F+ z7 w4 P, n& T# T) t7 ?* Q/ W
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。/ o; u7 l& E' J( d$ T
立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。
. S# A2 z1 D6 F+ i% l主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
/ A6 l% @8 R# E+ I广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
3 b# D6 c& o# `# c8 [0 m$ I' b主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
. T; w% R1 S8 ~现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
- ?/ d& B$ h; o! I主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。* L% i1 e+ p3 `& j
9 o8 I3 E$ N" ~" Q5 i( D' ~ C5 S
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
3 }2 u v7 T% t' a0 u结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。4 G9 x( ]! ]* \! V7 U+ w/ I% y
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。0 j) v: d% c( K( q
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。
& V. T4 Y ^' a4 H- t8 e* C0 ^) x- |; u) m7 W. }9 N
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。5 f1 W0 R, x. g( R1 v
3 p8 X2 e( l: z9 g: C
例如:- e$ J' a! R) G* y2 j0 B3 X: A
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
; T) L+ F7 `" g% H$ h, r! Y双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
7 B& x6 [9 v: b) {2 n所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
# B' G, Z+ ]1 s( W& E. F9 ^" ^' l9 V
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。) t2 V( S" b, K0 \ R
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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