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美联储前三把手杜德利表示，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 . c s8 k7 W7 Q, ]8 D
; a% a9 d0 @2 i6 Q' J8 u+ B* B, V持续受恐慌情绪影响，隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数连续两日收于熊市区间，和道琼斯指数均连跌五日。三大指数中，只有纳指小幅收涨，暂别近两年低谷。 0 D# a0 h6 E2 x' P
5 V9 J; Z( M. G6 K7 Q3 A! M) a在上周五公布的通胀数据意外上行并创四十年新高之后，市场普遍预计美联储将更加激进地加息。 1 F- \! _+ p; y& Y `0 J e- d
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目前，美联储将在本周的利率决议上加息75个基点逐渐成为华尔街的共识，其中包括巴克莱、摩根大通、高盛等大型投行。 % h/ }0 d! O& [& Y
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据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具，从6月10日至13日，美联储本周加息75个基点的可能性已从23.2%上升至95.5%。
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摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli和渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander甚至认为美联储本次可能加息100个基点。
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值得一提的是，美联储前三把手、前纽约联储主席威廉·杜德利也做出类似的预测。
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“我的感觉是，美联储已经决定加息75个基点而非50个基点，因为过去一周的数据显示通胀上升，而且可能会有一些关于通胀预期的更令人不安的消息。”
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, L R8 t& R( A3 {此外，杜德利表示，美联储完全可以基于同样的理由在本次的利率决议中加息100个基点，因为：
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/ D3 G5 E Z) L( @' R9 F“如果你认为速度和最终达到的水平一样重要，那为什么不快点到达呢？”
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根据杜德利的说法，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 ( x3 K3 l: L/ |" k& @8 | v
- {/ Y# q. m' ]! {5 |3 T8 D2 L如果华尔街的共识变成现实，这将是美联储自1994年以来首次一次性加息75个基点。 0 Z1 {' @# L4 t3 d n& i" p
2 T, s* x: s6 q; T# `" b5 C按照美联储在加息周期开始时的说法，美联储的目标是尽可能快地让利率回到中性水平。但在5月的储例行新闻发布会上，鲍威尔改变了这种以中性利率为目标的态度，明确表示加到中性利率后再定加息终点。他表示要继续加息，直到有“明确和令人信服”的证据表明通胀正在放缓。
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0 y# E! u2 T1 ?" X+ _另外，鲍威尔在5月的例行新闻发布会上表示，未来两次会议可能加息50个基点，暂排除75个基点加息。但有分析表示，加息50个基点可能会给金融市场带来更大的混乱。 |
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