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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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8 A" \0 y; L  v$ h5 m     平手中水,主队有利5 ^6 ?$ Q* v0 ^6 E- d4 @  V. c6 `' `
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。; n- o# a, z4 t6 G8 {
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:+ b. f. [( U- {, ?# H5 j5 T" O
     英超主队
* A+ n; }+ U0 v7 M* n" |1 Z     胜:13场 48%$ J7 z8 U9 ]( r% `
     平:5场 17%
% z1 _% c7 z" e, z6 H     负:9场 35%
/ A  g3 L$ M; q! B. d+ G  ~0 L     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。) b$ Q- N# r$ T. k! n) q
     
8 K) z2 x0 `7 s6 C- D" V     一、初盘阶段* y- }5 V2 [1 Q, N" Z
     具体到水位如下:5 [3 O% O. Y% ~' a* ?$ E% g, _
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负) f  B" T4 R1 d5 w9 h2 }
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负: ^9 h1 B! ^8 A
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
+ h4 S+ t; l/ s/ w4 B2 X4 w     ) S7 Z0 {* [5 {, S4 Z  B: f* T
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。; P7 F+ L5 ]$ X- |
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( e2 n2 }4 Q2 N/ e8 h9 b6 e) @     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。* h+ |' L5 Y( ^3 `
     
0 c. N+ d- p) x2 s# o6 I( a     二、临场阶段
. y0 e( S* d+ n( l+ I; K" N, L: t     + I8 |9 I6 I" A- p6 Y6 a, |+ }' G
     具体到变盘和水位如下:: _  F0 W& r! O& `; d( }4 ^' L
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负+ o2 B6 {# r' v" b7 K) I$ |
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
7 O& N1 p% M3 ?0 |; n     
7 |/ x* `- l8 x8 g% o+ }* ~7 i     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
& H+ Q5 D, i0 W* n- }     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
+ u3 V. o8 p! D2 M     
" y3 n# g- @7 x3 M7 t( @     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿0 F4 E2 f. q: U7 T7 a7 x$ I
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 n$ j& \- g( s5 r! A5 _8 N1 ?" k     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85  V5 _( l0 U  l
     # B, n: A  o! W- n
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
! M6 S8 l! b) U' w  R2 n6 i     初盘:0.76平手1.10$ |$ B$ a  D" O& g! C
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.918 c+ A: }) L" P% x) F. B; U
     
; i# U: ^, h3 Y: p  B# y( b     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技/ |0 G% j+ I& V8 m
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
# V, B4 o: {: v. U; [4 h     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98# D3 r. D( L9 P) }7 R; g
     
. k$ U3 y+ N4 ?3 W     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
/ p4 t) ~+ @  J. X9 l3 n     初盘:0.88平手0.98
+ J  d& c. ]% W/ _: j/ y; b     终盘:1.12平/半0.74+ e) p0 Y& }+ i5 \) I
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
5 y/ ^* B6 e7 D0 A8 k     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
! k4 o2 K1 e$ c: @' O3 N6 j8 ]' Y     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。; C; y- ]2 M$ \9 p2 U
     7 _5 q5 |: e5 ]9 }
     三、球队表现
/ R% o* x" d; N7 J! u4 Z+ M     
6 m. z$ x, \& q/ N     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。& s, L& x1 u7 i7 n+ b( {; n7 u; @
     ) T1 r3 r& e  i! V% X; r
     四、投注要点
1 m) d2 a+ @% F( J# v     要点1:平手中水、主多不败) M' e3 |  r% h" G, V$ M, ~
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头% J: ]! o2 u/ C2 Q2 R( E
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
% K- X- ~0 ^& Z( _# _     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
* w, j( r  l# m$ z     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任8 h( C( d: \0 d- I
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大' S, u( R% Q- D
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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