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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第二节]
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第二节 平手/半球初盘
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平半降盘,主难出30 m# `! o" c) h3 h& z' G4 m
一般情况下,主队初盘让平/半只是对主场因素的考虑。在英超08-09赛季澳彩以平/半为初盘的83场比赛中,主队37胜26平20负,比率为胜45%、平31%、负24%,。虽然主胜率略高于客胜率,但是平局比率较大,使得主队不胜率高达55%。此数据与以往赛季略有出入。再看09-10赛季英超已经进行的比赛的统计。7 o Y/ V$ \3 v' g
09-10赛季半程主队平手/半球盘成绩统计:
6 A3 B# I; a! p; x- k7 M# S 英超主队
" U+ k' Z9 j4 a$ F 胜:23场 40%& x* L0 T c! n' r
平:21场 36%
5 f% f. F8 ]7 ]/ q) ]! o 负:13场:22%
/ w; n' @% }+ f- ~+ b& B( W( w+ i- T 通过统计可以看到,英超平/半初盘,在09-10赛季进行时中的表现与上个赛季出入并不大。打平的比率与主胜比率已经十分接近,此盘路下足彩重点应在防平方面。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位为例,开始分析英超主队平手/半球初盘盘路。
# d) j9 G( s. ~% y 3 Z; X3 k$ V6 s% s( ~( u
一、初盘阶段
) {7 Z/ d- \, _ |/ a* B" F 0 Q# b: _9 o6 ^5 O! A- Q! J
具体到水位如下:) u c( o* u2 W6 g) N6 c7 T
初盘低水:英超主队 5胜7平3负4 m( k7 e- q: V! N: X
初盘中水:英超主队10胜4平4负
/ T; v i0 M9 Z- y4 q 初盘高水:英超主队3胜8平5负
* A7 |3 k- u- g1 v2 r( k0 h " K: n! ?2 s; m1 V% B! S
分析:初盘阶段平/半低水,主要发生在0.76-0.85区间。其中出现最频繁的是初盘0.84低水,该水下主队1胜3平1负,主队不胜次数较多,足彩打出10的可能较大。3 N! h* K" Z" S7 L. I
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.86-0.98水位区间。该水位下主队赢球机会较大,但是客胜和平局的比率也不小。在该中水范畴内0.92-0.94区间下主队输球比率较低,足彩打出31可能很大。0.88水位出现了2次均都分出了胜负,足彩可作为30双选的备选考虑。0.96、0.98水的不确定因素较多,足彩任选9和单场建议回避,14场的大单建议全包。在中水下要特别关注的是0.86/1.00水,在英超平/半盘中,该水位下主队基本不败,足彩跑出31的几率较大。
: O m! M3 C4 l8 t/ ~ 初盘阶段高水水位,主要发生在1.00-1.10区间。该区间内主队取胜的机会并不多。其中1.02水下主队输球或不胜次数最多,足彩打出10机会较多。1.00、1.10水下几乎都是平局,足彩出1的机会很大。1.08、1.06、1.04这三种水位下主队均都输球,足彩出0的可能性需要重视。: P4 ~! `5 _( p; ^
7 h% S# e( n ~; c8 [
二、临场阶段/ X. B! u4 r: W4 G% H' }7 B4 b
N4 h6 L }$ V. I b* }
具体到盘口变化如下:
7 x. j1 {8 }# [ V h/ | a5 @ 临场降为平手: 英超主队 1胜1平2负
8 \1 U7 r' @! Z H 临场升为半球: 英超主队 3胜3平1负: x% c$ `! ~2 K/ x/ y3 r$ i2 H& q
0 H, {0 x+ B: w 分析:临场主队降为平手盘,英超主队只取得1次胜利,主队不胜的比率较大,足彩10的可能性极高。这里要提醒大家的是,如在主弱客强、但是主队状态或者战意强于客队时,主队初盘让平/半高水,临场降盘升水到平手高水或超高水、而诸如立博、易胜博等亚盘甚至转为主队受让平/半高水时,则要注意客队大热、主队赢球可能反倒增大。
P- i2 g; B* u* Q4 [- O7 L( D 临场主队升盘为半球盘,即区别升盘后是造热还是阻盘的问题,统计结果是主队基本不败,足彩31格局较正路。输赢盘的盘口特征如下:
, Z$ y* U8 _, S4 v* a& ~0 d: R
6 G" }% S2 N' _: p: k 狼队0-1朴茨茅斯( D* A. g/ C; X* p3 b" V; b
初盘:0.76平手/半球1.10
9 A0 u# h0 E d; Y 终盘:1.11半球0.75
, c5 K& e6 s8 I- F, |& s( T* L4 S# j % P$ l2 X7 ~' r5 R! k, {
切尔西1-0曼联8 \! d( S; H! u! ?2 M0 _& H
初盘:0.78平手/半球1.083 p3 v- O: ^) v! d7 e$ u8 Q
终盘:0.86半球1.009 ]% s Y) o P4 A
/ n7 T7 |4 H/ {8 \: g: K- z* r$ Q
切尔西2-0利物浦, C5 p {( Z; t; A
初盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
0 S: Z, R& `6 k/ D 终盘:1.03半球0.830 |' \0 r# w( O. h# Y* H
' X; J7 j- ~& k# c3 R$ ^+ H; m
热刺3-0曼城(赢盘)
. S3 @+ U" f# c$ w 初盘:0.94平手/半球0.92
' @# i; \) v; F1 k 终盘:1.03半球0.83( n+ |3 n3 L/ ?) x) o: t
6 }* f ?( U. u' y 博尔顿1-1斯托克城1 z! b; u8 d" y
初盘:0.86平手/半球1.00
3 N' _3 M% E( b0 \ 终盘:1.04半球0.82
P& A$ M' c+ I8 G* X' D. B( J - N3 h6 C! Z' G' ^
提示1:初盘0.86/1.00水位作为上下盘水位,在平手盘和平/半初盘多次出现,在该水位下主队基本都不败,但要注意的是平局的次数也较多。8 L6 X7 v" E$ v; J# ]# v
提示2:初盘水位0.88/0.96分胜负的概率较大。英超、英冠本赛季已经出现10场在初盘该水位下没有平局的比赛。$ u$ f" M3 g& Y# ~
# D9 x% g/ _7 ~6 _
三、球队表现2 h2 d* d% E: e: R& O1 h7 |- e$ p
/ P2 l0 X4 ^; y" O
赢盘较多的富勒姆,在初盘让平/半于实力接近的客队时都取得了胜利,在09-10赛季的两次平/半盘中分别战胜了布莱克本和桑德兰,该队让平/半初盘时主场出3的能力值得关注。其他表现较好球队是切尔西、伯明翰、斯托克城、维冈竞技,这些队伍都在主场让平/半时赢球较多,其中切尔西本赛季在平/半初盘下取得2胜、分别战胜了曼联和利物浦,伯明翰和富勒姆目前都是4胜1平1负,维冈竞技2胜4平,这些球队在让平/半盘时客队赢球机会都很小,无特别情况足彩31值得信任。狼队是在平/半盘下很少打出平局的球队,成绩是2胜1平3负,平/半盘下该队足彩可多考虑走两头。表现较差的球队是阿森纳、朴茨茅斯、埃弗顿、维拉、赫尔城、博尔顿,这些球队在平/半初盘下都是或平或败,目前均无赢球纪录,遇到他们的赛事,足彩建议以双选01为主。, P: Z- |9 M- W3 K# \' T: _
, F6 P1 u6 w, k; j 四、投注要点7 ~& }- I" S, _, J; y# N6 s
; w( G7 T. `2 A& p. \
要点1:平/半降盘,不选3
2 w1 r/ M* H9 @1 ~ 要点2:初盘低水,注意关注提示的水位
( q9 J2 Z" E, A5 X9 U+ @ 要点3:主队升盘,多316 u! a+ G6 r3 C
要点4:切尔西平/半、赢球多1 A {+ P9 X+ l( i |( |
要点5:兵工厂平/半、0不可少7 q# z4 a! X+ @7 c4 m3 ^
要点6:切尔西升盘,首3补1可省0 |
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