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[lastpost] => 2750105 狗狗币DOGE价格行情预测(转) 1752803608 sunnyclare001
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( ?4 y% N. G, H$ g 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整,这将对经济产生短期的负面影响,然而,过去一周的市场条件不太可能: M q L9 W$ O* a
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) O* L- _3 `9 o1 i( s+ `5 }$ W成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施,这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。
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例如,虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀(即造成滞涨),某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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(即减少滞涨),最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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尽管前景存在不确定性,最好的猜测是,美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。1 N8 M( |( G, q! k3 r
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关税本身可能会减缓增长,但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
( w& g( y! Q% @$ u0 Z; V% u- }2 M) N" y2 ?
政策,尽管最初受到关税的冲击,GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲,历史表明,一段时期内持续的通胀' C8 v a: `. e& v+ P1 F! D) v7 o
) Q1 H) ^, v7 P) p" k压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。2 G% J+ r. j* Y, S: v* n0 N
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此外,就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样,比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。" s. G, @* q) {
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今年以来,白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化,这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资,包括撤销一系列诉讼,确保资产& G- M! F- h- \' ~
6 I9 r" B) Q/ v7 j( x对传统商业银行的适用性,以及允许受监管的机构(如托管人)提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战7 \9 \. u# @ a0 }; t! f
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素,但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来1 C2 n! P ~6 C# D; c. O/ Z
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看,宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善,可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。 ^; p# F7 ~6 j+ ?9 h( n3 V4 c
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