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[lastpost] => 2759750 周一的虚拟币市场，跌多涨少了 1756090774 22301
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过去一周，比特币[BTC]一直受困于低流动性流入，导致自 8 月 14 日重新创下历史新高以来已下跌 10%。
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值得注意的是，这种流动性枯竭通常预示着潜在的看跌情景，因为当市场达到季节性高潮时，投资者开始抛售资产。$ _* o0 B! i# t& P r
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然而，新的宏观经济见解认为，尽管逆转的风险仍然存在，但市场仍然看涨。7 g, p2 O8 B& Z7 E% J& x/ S1 P) T
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宏观信号依然支持
8 o+ T8 m- @" P- ^( [7 s# n美国宏观经济指标阿尔弗莱克塔尔根据美联储金融压力指数 (FFSI)，比特币和标准普尔 500 指数在未来几天都有进一步上涨的空间。5 r5 T7 g3 \: l/ [9 ^; f
0 }0 v0 G; X1 d2 o该指数追踪市场紧张程度，高于 0 的高读数表示卖方压力，而低于 0 的数值则反映市场平静和购买兴趣。/ t2 j" Z7 n, |6 [% f' t/ V
& L1 D3 \/ u: |& y0 ?" w" h从历史上看，该指标曾预测过重大的市场波动，包括2020年封锁期间。截至发稿时，FFSI低于0，预示着未来仍有增长空间。
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8 o$ Y+ S- m# |" y) B8 H- e2 G市场情绪似乎更倾向于比特币而非标准普尔 500 指数，尤其是考虑到过去一年的表现，比特币上涨了 86.2%，而标准普尔指数则上涨了 15.3%。阿尔忒弥斯.
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) j6 P' k: A6 t6 W, N3 i2 d& W2 z4 I这表明，如果购买恢复，投资者可能会将资金投入比特币而不是标准普尔，因为他们的风险偏好依然强劲。
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6 E9 Q/ w6 r3 R @1 ?$ ?著名加密货币分析师 Joao Wedson 最近将此描述为市场“平静/观察”阶段，但警告称“价格走势通常比宏观指标反应更快”，从而使资产处于灰色地带。
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他补充道，! }3 `) C B. R
( c8 z! v6 P1 l9 a& p$ G: Y“如果FFSI跌破并保持在0以上，这将是一个警告信号，表明美国局势可能不稳定，并直接影响风险市场。”7 g" O9 X0 N' N) x$ w
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韦德森警告称，随着我们进入 2025 年末和 2026 年初，这种情况可能会引发“亚洲主要经济体”更广泛的经济不稳定，从而可能阻止比特币的上涨。; L0 L3 _! R6 ] o/ h
: n' T, w- F. `# k7 @, K# C* U他敦促投资者做好准备，以免措手不及。
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0 @* C9 k( H* x6 C7 W亚洲比特币市场再度走强% v! s8 I! p v: ^) G ^
亚洲市场正显示出复苏的早期迹象，随着韩国溢价指数达到 0.3，投资者再次对比特币进行买入。CryptoQuant.
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1 [) K c* C, {# F& U7 L% C此前，该指数一直处于持续的下跌趋势中，并以红色标记。持续的上涨趋势可能会引发更多资金流入，尤其是来自新投资者群体的资金。
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相比之下，截至发稿时，关键市场指标 Coinbase 溢价指数已降至 0.017，这表明美国投资者正在增加卖方活动。
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8 [. d: r3 ~: d U0 O9 ?$ W% [* U& I然而，如果这一指标反弹，它可能会增强围绕比特币日益增长的看涨情绪。3 w, D* K/ }* q$ h! a# O3 o
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宏观偏暖，量弱，先小仓吧
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