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[lastpost] => 2771901 加密 VC （加密风险投资）三年亏千万：耐心＞机会，运气＞专业，FOMO＝自sha 1760287043 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
加密货币崩盘还是洗牌？杠杆率飙升或为下一轮反弹奠定基础（转）
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这 加密市场经历了近年来最混乱的周末之一，强制清算和恐慌性抛售的连锁反应引发了数十亿美元的损失。! z( q6 ]( W ~ b, [8 T8 ]) Y7 \6 Z9 k
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比特币一度跌破 110,000 美元，而以太坊和其他主要加密货币在数小时内暴跌超过 20%，专家称之为加密货币历史上最严重的清算事件。
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4 u- A- q" K u8 m$ m( S: ]3 ]加密货币总市值（来源：交易视图)
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9 P( j% s3 s4 d5 F在美国ZF宣布对天朝科技进口产品征收新关税后，股市出现大幅下跌，引发了人们对全球贸易紧张局势再度加剧的担忧。
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4 M. D* |6 Q3 [: U' p6 K一家加密货币取证公司的调查主管 Joshua Duckett 表示：“大多数人的投资额都不会超过他们的承受能力，但在整个加密货币行业中，就杠杆交易而言，损失高达数十亿美元。”
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完美的加密风暴：杠杆和恐慌性抛售
& Q: m7 [7 l! T' ?( {杠杆在加密货币闪电崩盘中发挥了巨大作用。0 e' w" d/ f6 h6 P
E+ ]$ d& a7 y$ L. b那些为了扩大收益而大举借贷的交易员，在市场剧烈波动时遭受的打击最为严重。一旦触发清算门槛，就会出现一连串的抛售指令，加剧市场暴跌。; \4 U- {8 ?/ r1 P3 z2 x
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Duckett 指出，人们可以借入高达其资本 100 倍的加密货币。因此，当这些头寸被清算时，就会产生大幅快速的波动——而在本例中，波动幅度是直线下降，”这位分析师补充道。* n5 W E' T% T
2 ^7 ]/ `4 a" Q2 g按位文件夹经理乔纳森·曼 (Jonathan Man) 表示，几个小时内就有超过 200 亿美元被清算，抹去了约 650 亿美元的未平仓合约，并将市场头寸重置为 7 月份的水平。' b6 E# [$ M0 y) V
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比特币曼表示，一小时内下跌了 13%，而长尾代币的跌幅则更大——一些像 ATOM 这样的代币曾短暂跌至零，然后反弹。
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H5 o* ~" ?0 N$ c中心化交易所衰落，DeFi 保持强劲
7 H) `( q- h/ f$ w( t有趣的是， 去中心化金融（DeFi）协议在混乱中表现更好。, t2 T: V9 D- M# Y& [$ X
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Man 解释说，由于严格的抵押要求和稳定的资产配对，Aave 和 Morpho 等借贷平台的安全性更高。
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相比之下，中心化交易所则出现了大范围的混乱，在波动最剧烈的时候，币安和 Hyperliquid 之间的价差超过了 300 美元。
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# R( y+ @( g ~+ e8 D# v) h0 o流动性提供商为了管理风险而扩大了利差，一些平台甚至启动了自动去杠杆机制来稳定市场。Man补充道，Hyperliquid 的 HLP 金库实际上在抛售期间通过购买不良资产获利。) O& ?6 l9 j: c, W$ }' | V* Y1 s2 F
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复苏迹象：市场站稳脚跟$ v* n7 x* I' R g. G N* o
尽管市场暴跌，但分析师们仍看到了企稳的早期迹象。随着杠杆头寸的重置和流动性的逐渐恢复，比特币和以太坊已开始小幅反弹。
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“情况似乎已经基本稳定了，”达克特告诉福克斯商业新闻。“目前，我们正处于反弹至稳定的阶段。明天又是新的一天。” t0 f8 F' A3 `5 H* ~7 m
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曼表示同意，并指出大规模去杠杆事件可能为更健康的市场结构铺平道路。他表示，随着未平仓合约被清空，持有空头头寸的交易员已经在寻找后续机会。
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! C% A+ w* t7 F& _另请阅读：闪电崩盘震撼市场，现在最佳加密货币购买选择" b' w2 j7 f# v2 c e
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曼恩观察到，价格已从极低水平回升。这股热潮重置了市场，并为市场情绪稳定后新的增持打开了大门。+ C& {- X; t: K" f8 y' Q5 O
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; w( ^& N( z3 o" r( U! F虽然短期波动的可能性仍然存在，但加密货币市场的长期前景似乎没有受到影响。分析师表示，此次抛售已经清除了过剩的杠杆，可能为更可持续的复苏奠定基础。4 D& f8 |& Z& k
0 O, u( Q" b% y5 N6 Q由于贸易政策和美联储行动带来的宏观不确定性挥之不去，交易员们正在关注可能重振信心的新催化剂。专家表示，如果下周市场继续保持稳定，本周末的暴跌可能不会被人们铭记为一次崩盘，而更像是一次亟需的调整。
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