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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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& Y5 M2 C& p- D4 y9 j& y但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
% K2 F' b5 Y4 \2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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+ u, q7 e+ l$ X$ G来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。, M! b+ H q+ D5 a
6 J. ?8 F3 H j- w尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。- |; l9 \7 N9 W: B5 G9 h
V; [& y" I0 l事情变得有趣了
! D% K7 w+ L, h2 `BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 D8 [' H2 Z& l2 G
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。' w% X7 k6 d+ ~! G* S# A
, U7 ?6 n/ N# T6 IBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。" K* H( j5 c/ c( I9 Y% X# A1 H# X
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。3 v4 o3 V& g9 N
0 p" L& l' Y) l' a9 o- J3 l' y随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。+ s3 D% N _7 H) _4 c
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力" ], ^ G; W( T9 x
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView
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/ y+ V2 E, x0 I {# F日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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