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[lastpost] => 2785722 比特币5大信号决定本轮牛熊走向（转） 1764565940 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。
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截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。) K! J, C% B0 y/ W, c& O( E, Q
" g9 m, v1 @& K: p; h此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。- J, Z( e/ F! _
, g! y+ ~$ l9 A2 p9 Y9 C贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊. K2 i( N9 Q) `+ x3 K w
12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。7 d- g6 V+ J4 `, p
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分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。2 y/ r" U. Q( q" g" K4 ?/ j2 E" Q
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他说：
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, h! o2 X: J Z! j. X7 W“销量还会继续增长吗？”
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7 Z( y% W" _3 f# Q6 U6 v4 ?2 \; R' o因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？
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此举为何引发担忧？6 x2 z9 \& `; X" @
比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。4 F! B: Z3 T2 v4 q
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在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。8 z: R4 J O# M8 N
. `# ]: G. l* S, U& Z' u由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。- }) {' R0 p# s3 N: v/ U( J
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因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。' g* l5 v2 B# ~' \
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对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。' V, {/ _- j6 m6 p' ?) F$ Q
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然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。/ ^( O) i0 s0 l% o
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还会有更多销售吗？( L2 n% N" r( d3 Q8 \7 e
然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
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对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。$ o/ Z5 A8 ?/ z! \9 k; x
1 n3 r2 S/ m5 j( F贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。
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" D" }- C3 e) ?, G% m通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。, Q+ {: v5 y9 c4 y- `/ m
" S( s: J4 r9 x! i) c即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。8 ]" R8 F9 ~8 |7 x8 X" I
0 c6 w) s4 ]# d, _$ h截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。
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来源：Trading View
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要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。5 p3 e- z) i" I, V2 N$ @
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在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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最后想说的话
* D7 h$ k2 r7 Z$ k零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。. I! ^: e; P" t
技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。: W5 M+ Y; x% m6 T: x U
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