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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

; E+ Q! M; O# v
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
; y& c9 ]$ z4 C: [6 p/ u10A23456789# ~- W4 r& ]+ i
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
: k4 n3 i* p7 \' M' Y' f-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
$ z) t9 E/ S: o-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133" x! R9 k/ y0 w+ `
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1207 j& q6 m1 q3 u6 H* y! c
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
* m4 d9 G2 V8 M. i9 ^4 a! X-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096: p2 ^* e6 l9 I
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085$ P, o5 N0 Y( w) p  P- H" \
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.0742 z* g7 O+ K% ?
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064/ I6 v" {- @3 V! B
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
$ }% {, A1 d# C! e+ ~! G1 ^2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
( L& }. m6 u5 K+ y3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0364 L0 ^  }. E6 Q
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.0285 ]% q% a4 I( x# ?- D+ m% X
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
5 K3 t& @2 Y  P0 F, U# E: r6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
7 C! \+ B" L( c$ `7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
: g4 K8 y6 Q6 D+ r+ l" R" Z7 K8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
+ w! ?: o$ P: h  N# x. r8 i9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996( y# d3 |1 z9 _3 R+ O
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
6 u6 ]/ e/ x. \% k+ }# m11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
" T: g* Y0 ^7 B2 D7 O0 @" B6 j' L& B12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
8 y8 d, j% q7 e0 b% j5 y13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
. c! y. n/ s7 i5 R3 E- I: t5 C4 s14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.9805 Q1 r1 R5 k9 d7 Q
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
% \$ p# e; B: Q3 I16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979, I7 ^% k$ G9 o; ^7 X$ |0 d
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
1 r$ j$ P/ O/ v  F* l( a7 [18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9793 c: g9 [( J/ b: G" ~3 {
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
$ C4 B+ c4 ?. ]* _20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9839 K( W" f/ O- [4 W0 ]! o: V
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9860 ^2 F0 T/ R& z% m$ @7 K
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989' g  f0 |. q  z" U' D, _
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
7 P5 s3 [5 |( y$ {24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
( O& B! ^1 i' M25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
, a4 \2 ?4 q  K) [( D

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


8 P+ \. P- m9 Z4 W) G7 l  S表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類! r( w& ?/ u3 x+ V# \. |
10A23456789
+ L" `  q. ~5 Q-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095- L& ~( _" N. Y- ?5 B- T
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
  `) J2 {7 s- y/ X-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069% F# r8 |* [* @$ E. n
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.0564 N7 L  L; R: I2 Y. d
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
' |: s& V7 H9 T4 m2 O2 C-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
; s0 J' v* q- z& X/ N- v  V-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021- ~4 z- B( u* H. ?
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
- Z9 P4 {$ q' s0 w. O4 S( j& @00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
( _) h+ K" F& f  M1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
% ~( a; R! K( f4 Z9 v) H" R2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
5 d" W4 ]4 v5 ?% L3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
2 d; E$ G: T& T& B4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0368 `7 f5 N$ z* K( @
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
3 u. n: Q- W$ Z7 o9 L$ E  v- ]+ v! C6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0510 o. B8 l& i$ K+ M5 z/ ?5 d/ L6 D
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
5 k5 k+ A, o( N8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
" j: }+ \6 z. g* j. J9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068# z; b% a- w. m6 |& x; ], a2 f
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.0729 L$ i* [7 q  r  F- i3 D
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.0768 ~! J, `" U0 u. M' e) W
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0793 Q) A8 V2 a9 R8 O, J* D% r' C
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0826 g2 Y' @- l( l
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0847 J( N2 M+ G" W! z. V+ u, _
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085: D2 B& l" g+ G- f
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085, N/ e# z/ n. @5 k5 \
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
7 z1 G/ \! {2 D0 X1 I/ A4 U. k/ [) f18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085$ ?' ]9 H: m) d6 H' \" N# }1 t
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
% e9 f1 l& C9 D% N20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
+ |4 H0 H$ W: f8 s: E6 L9 y21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078( ], V7 J% e- z( B- V" h
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
' t; `. L/ d, T$ w23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0716 G5 ^- {0 P" N& V
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
! T& ^1 m5 M3 K* `% n) g; f25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
! j4 T2 f0 H' g* }2 m

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

& c: _7 H7 d! p$ M' Y4 e" n# |
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類$ A8 G3 K/ h9 P' |
10A23456789) ]. j9 {  k  @
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
9 k( X! X4 D' ?/ u5 ^4 W- T-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137: k6 C2 x% k" y
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
/ j. @3 e! d1 d& b" C-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166+ c0 g. P" `9 }( R. r% o
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
; K. f( R  o" s9 `8 w3 f0 M-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
7 ^2 }) W  x) q-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205. K" o; \2 K  @" b* \6 D
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
; Y' |* |) i! T$ H8 X1 K" O/ {0 h0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228$ ^1 v' [' P7 ^9 B8 v* B; r4 ~) }
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
1 ~! S/ ?4 C4 Q8 Q2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249$ x! @6 Q0 M) U3 M/ T7 s
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
( e2 f3 U8 P' D2 }% [2 K0 _7 Q+ T4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2665 {+ q0 W9 B& x6 X9 ~- Z
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
4 s) V6 I2 @. o8 ?; S# D6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
4 ]) c2 v) [2 r1 t! h7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2873 g" V) t& V4 u. Z
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
, F& b9 a2 O$ v& Q9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298. Z5 b' W. x" d5 i) e' Z
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302- Y" Z) A3 H0 y
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
6 _% M0 ^/ f+ S2 Z  e12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3088 U4 O; }9 T' t& {# d
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
6 T7 u4 t1 d* |5 Y14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311- i" [1 r4 j% r, [1 w& m3 A1 e
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
- d% y( T: r( E2 l& U9 c16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311; k+ t7 m* z) ^
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
1 f0 h- c3 a1 I8 U18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308; Y" g: i$ C3 Z5 f, J
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3053 ^, ]: n) m; D) R! r
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301. s& b& A. V5 U6 J1 O# W
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
# \/ T7 I3 _) Y22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
' p, ?" F, D* s; z% }" h2 a23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.2868 x& Y' h) v5 _! h
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279& v0 p$ u* p# Q
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
3 y! d( P9 E+ V6 h5 b' y

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
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6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
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{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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