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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
7 |8 r. V: v8 P. X; ]     - u2 x! y+ O/ G; ?5 L2 B# {
     平手中水,主队有利: v( E6 l7 t' w: y# u7 a7 C
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。9 f* _; X9 N4 i$ A4 w7 B
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:8 I7 J; G. i* S) H7 E. [3 ~
     英超主队
  Y& Y9 |1 l1 [& h     胜:13场 48%
9 d9 C* O8 O2 s     平:5场 17%4 |- h4 z8 x4 v
     负:9场 35%7 R# i% P& E6 j/ h" [) ^* F
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
# P9 o" |$ y4 n7 v     
  m0 `- Y" x: [9 z& `     一、初盘阶段
% B: o. c* x6 c4 d     具体到水位如下:$ C2 ^. F1 W: p1 m# ~) Z
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
' i* [# C1 T' X% D+ k     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
3 R3 U& e$ t/ W0 A, P     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
% v  ~- {4 a# J7 X* L5 w     9 v0 E( n: a  }6 W% R. g) u5 K
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
6 w8 b, @: T# R     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
5 `/ C9 f9 f  r     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。& K2 z( u$ w( C/ T" w; r& h
     
) d9 P, E% l* u     二、临场阶段  g* [5 [1 S! E! n" h" H+ [
     
& ?. L; ^3 u/ [4 D5 m     具体到变盘和水位如下:
. M* N& M3 T- \4 U) G( T8 G' H1 O     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
) E/ P; O+ R" g/ {" b! r" I2 _     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
' c2 P9 O# d3 j0 w     2 W0 g! K5 Q+ F4 ~1 q
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。" F" K  z0 b4 `" L: z
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:5 j  G' t! g* }
     
% U0 O) j8 x7 v, Z) W! r( N+ q5 R! D     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿+ b1 U& |' K7 J% c
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
/ o! k* r0 R4 B  P     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.850 c8 y. C2 d7 [$ ^
     
" R5 S/ q. }$ x. f1 v$ A     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆' b4 \# e$ f( j
     初盘:0.76平手1.105 f0 H' Y+ ?: q8 N6 b( o
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* E) U6 S$ X1 L, u* q' h# p     6 s2 F( U# h9 Y2 S6 C7 g
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技1 I$ X& c1 S9 @% Y. z( o
     初盘:0.82平手1.04( f) t- t. `/ _
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98) A+ b& h% {* [* ^
     
9 Z/ m9 O+ s0 c     伯恩利2-1西汉姆% G/ j* O" v7 P; u5 l) T
     初盘:0.88平手0.98/ c- `: {4 p, J# D5 W' Q6 x  ^
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
. Y2 c3 m! {. l& y, S9 T     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
2 ^9 S3 i4 @0 }% Z     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
. m! b7 R; Z$ k. U. o/ e9 q- y  B     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
- @7 h. I! _& B8 U: M$ p9 n; i* ~     
) }% v/ E4 _4 V/ Q; U     三、球队表现
" m) t. w) h1 H" i     
( M+ ?  A- C0 d" T     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。' k5 [0 h0 b! V+ S
     
3 ?0 O: C5 B+ W     四、投注要点! t% z1 g; y- i. O* I0 l
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败6 l  ?1 m. g5 l! C
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
) t4 V$ T6 [$ x( y% X" Q     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
/ @: A* L; c; G8 i4 Y2 K     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
' r: Q- k- p& U7 g1 X* Y8 W+ f     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
' B1 m$ o" G) I% l: [* I     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大/ u( V4 ~9 g4 ~
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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