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[lastpost] => 2758338 《社交网络》最倒霉的双子兄弟，炒币炒上市了（转） 1755630802 caoch
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的9 q1 Y1 W" `7 Z: J, |( |! G' a& y
比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要3 H$ J; m1 V' H$ k# I. R
短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。/ F3 k3 M a! i7 w3 h8 u @
0 w8 ~" g( z L) h比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内! W+ R' e) H" ?% i% o: f
实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
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然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。
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STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。 * V" ~* L. _/ y$ @ c8 S
/ Q( ?5 w% i, B) u尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。6 y' U0 X1 K: ~- P g6 E5 y
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这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。
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比特币价格结构和风险区域# D# i' C& L3 | W
发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。
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这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。, _0 ^- z) W# k% k2 y, |3 v
9 M; ~3 H5 z9 d布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。
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但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。* W; \; {* s4 P9 m. e, o9 ~9 q( L
* A6 Y" I& T4 ^这对比特币趋势意味着什么
4 P9 y2 z' v5 j( L3 q未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。8 Y6 ~2 u5 N: m* S7 k6 K3 q1 K; ^
* K, I5 [; j" |/ |如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。3 e7 B+ a' I; `0 Q9 }
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总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。9 n6 F6 t# {* i0 ^9 ?6 J
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