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[lastpost] => 2746902 立法者为“加密货币周”做准备，比特币出现获利回吐（转） 1751721699 小钱儿
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当前离线
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STH已记录了70亿美元已实现的损失，这是本周期中最多的
. F4 T8 R7 T3 `2 A! [0 r) f. w比特币价格仍在关键的移动平均值下，短期持有人行为对近期趋势方向至关重要
- D2 e9 `6 R, k+ P短期比特币[BTC]持有人会感觉到热量是未实现的损失安装，这标志着这个市场周期中的关键拐点。但是，尽管有所有压力，历史表明这可能是更广泛的牛趋势中的自然冷却阶段。
" [; Z3 d8 G6 B$ y9 o4 Q; W7 x1 ~; m! ^! _. q1 G' m O3 o% `
比特币损失爬升，但保持在历史范围内, q3 s) ` @, a
实际上，来自玻璃节点显示短期持有人[STH]的相对未实现的损失可能接近+2标准偏差水平 - 这是与峰值遇险有关的阈值。
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然而，它们仍然保持在牛市中通常看到的上限范围内，尚未违反投降领域。* F, M) Y+ D' l5 E: G1 l! U
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STH痛苦的新闻时间水平似乎也是值得注意的，在过去的30天中，已实现的损失超过70亿美元。
* `4 s c( Z; o0 W7 S! j0 S
+ M' S U6 E6 y) m3 @0 ?' h& b尽管这一数字是当前周期中最高的损失事件，但在2021年5月和2022年6月的重大逐渐减值期间，它显着低于惊人的198亿美元和207亿美元的损失。" x, a2 O7 B) [
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这意味着，尽管损失一直在增加，但许多投资者仍在极端投降之前退出。换句话说，短期持有人可能会陷入适度的损失，而不是忍受更深层的缩减，这可能是更广泛的市场实力的可能迹象。$ \; ~7 G9 _) x8 H0 _( Q5 `3 y6 j: n( j
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比特币价格结构和风险区域
& Y8 U! |2 n3 t: o% e4 o$ R# ~ |发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,322美元，加密货币徘徊在其50天的搬家平均水平低于85,141美元以下，远低于200天移动平均线，为95,174美元。( C9 w* {8 N& y* H" Y I
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这些水平形成关键阻力区，并可能继续抑制向上的动量。尤其是如果短期持有人的情绪仍然弱。" d) ^5 v0 f7 r- a0 \
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布林乐队还强调了一个紧缩范围，暗示可能突破了。: s7 c$ A" F$ y. _! K
+ f1 P5 o: S- S, [但是，由于短期持有人在压力下，除非新需求进入市场，否则偏见可能会倾斜看跌。- e3 V4 E$ u5 b2 `2 W2 b+ f
' ^* Z0 I; p; V I4 n! ]! R" y这对比特币趋势意味着什么
! p% D) A$ e4 _5 p1 o未实现的损失和已实现的损失的结合表明风险升高，特别是对于那些持有的人比特币在最近的高点获得。但是，这些损失仍然存在于历史牛市模式之内，这表明尚未确认宏逆转。$ c1 C7 U8 P1 H4 C# q: e; P
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如果BTC可以收回85,000美元的级别并将其倒入支持，则可以在STH中更新信心。相反，如果不持有83,000美元，可能会导致更多销售，同时测试较低的支撑量接近80,000美元。5 Y/ U9 B3 ^8 d( O- P9 y9 R0 ]
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总体而言，短期疼痛是显而易见的，但尚不极端。只要比特币的心理水平高于关键的心理水平和宏流程保持完整，这种校正就可以作为重置而不是逆转。
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