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[lastpost] => 2753259 比特币准备好突破11.9万美元了吗？——这个宏观指标告诉我们什么（转） 1753957659 不洗脸都帅
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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# X) Q4 L6 i) u7 W' W* @* ^$ I; C+ g& v( t" f$ M' j7 b+ s& P$ x
比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。8 d j9 B, \" U% T
1 p- J& O5 l4 e0 J 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。$ G) r6 f/ }' @
+ a/ H" m: |: ?2 F* O 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。& Q4 `) g0 w% }9 K; ^
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。0 l0 q& a9 ?0 i3 c
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，( f' b% H0 {- P% m7 i
( y% D( r$ N2 k2 R5 B6 ~价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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4 b, ^9 Z- z" j: x" i% ]; p; b" F “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间/ n3 ?0 T! L2 D& x; K8 [
_/ j$ {0 o4 s* k框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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1 ~) B8 f" c2 b! b- x 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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. y# D$ e* U: U积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。; J8 P a# J. q7 ^* X Z
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势* U/ t8 W: L& {) N- n
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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: r* c d- ?, K7 y3 W @2 L4 _( J8 C 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。% T0 e& j/ b+ S7 R$ E
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，9 v$ u0 H4 ?3 {, w; ^
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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