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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。, Z2 f! ^: s' V4 m
矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。: s C# s0 v( u( q1 U) b \5 K
这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。. ]7 z- H7 R+ K; V1 ~; j: Q" }
" m- b# I9 B% @- ?/ @价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。
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: w/ ?' _, w7 F6 ]3 Z风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。' J: W% G! [/ k6 f/ i# U% C
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从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?+ @6 w$ L/ B, j4 f
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减半后的挖矿经济 i$ P6 F+ w2 e
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。
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+ E- y1 B. k9 y3 \+ H: P. J* _问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。2 g0 z( J/ U1 G
3 L8 j7 |9 Q+ R0 x; f9 g# z自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。( f( B2 q) Z; u, J$ D- {
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到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。
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$ B; F" x1 D8 y- ?为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。, }3 @. R: r0 c G# _' G ?" Q
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换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。1 |# Z& N$ X& P" h3 o5 J& L1 d
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比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进% |; Q# n! H2 A/ R. m/ g0 f
距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。
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确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。4 X; A0 o7 E& G5 i' s
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但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
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" s( e* w3 L' q3 M$ y, A: C2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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9 u3 L) Z1 n( V2 X- `6 c据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。0 L$ P. K# m7 e; b
7 S) q6 c( {# ?! q0 w2 H& Y; d4 J话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。' A: i- L: U! X
4 u3 G1 H# P8 s1 ~4 y从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。
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( B8 K" N+ i/ V* e这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。; _1 `: V1 O; T( R1 r
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这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。5 _% c; m- o( J: s- `' U) }
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?! X2 h9 q2 S7 |* |' R
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