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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币市场的下一步走势——关注这些矿工信号寻找线索(转)
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比特币市场感觉处于强势与犹豫之间。" Z/ L+ r3 j6 {' _
矿业公司刚刚创下了减半后最好的一个月业绩,5 月份收入达 15.2 亿美元。6 j A7 Y* |# y- S3 W' M! ^
这 比特币[BTC]市场感觉像是陷入了困境。, S* A1 s0 Q0 B! j
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价格虽然强劲,但势头却令人信服。感觉比特币只需一次波动,就可能抹去5月份的所有涨幅,跌回六位数以下。
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风险如此之大,谨慎行事似乎是最明智的做法。但与更广泛的比特币市场不同,有一个行业利润丰厚——矿工。他们的生产成本远低于比特币当前价格,这为他们带来了巨额利润。
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从历史上看,矿业股在面临压力时总是能迅速锁定收益。那么,在市场观望的同时,我们是否应该更加密切地关注矿业股?# F1 z7 q1 a0 U7 E% z
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减半后的挖矿经济# ]9 J) a! G0 \
2024 年 4 月减半之后,矿工的奖励一夜之间从 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC,这给他们带来了沉重打击。
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. e* d. Q* K) Y0 P问题是,虽然奖励每四年减半,但挖矿成本却并没有降低。你消耗的电力和支付的电费都一样,但每个区块的收益却只有一半。
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自然,这导致平均采矿成本飙升。
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到4月底,比特币价格飙升至每BTC约9万美元,而其价格却顽固地徘徊在6万美元附近。这种不匹配导致了比特币市场陷入了横盘整理的恶性循环,市场陷入了窄幅震荡。9 l0 ~# D& S' P: E( V* ^
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为什么?因为减半后发生的事情是典型的矿工策略:储备枯竭,比特币市场陷入低迷,矿工收入开始减少。. H, v( W6 ?1 p
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换句话说,不断增加的压力迫使矿工在其利润率(BTC 的现货价格 - 生产成本)进一步受到挤压之前退出,加速全面矿工投降阶段。
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比特币市场陷入困境,矿工竞相前进
: ~7 A" n& l) u) a6 ]. `; y- E距离第四次减半还有一年,开采单个比特币的平均成本仍然徘徊在 91,105 美元左右,而比特币市场一直横盘整理,BTC 徘徊在 10.3 万美元至 10.5 万美元之间。! ]7 P$ J @ |. d% M: W/ i
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确实,比特币5月份的投资回报率高达11.12%,甚至创下了历史新高。这反过来又推动了比特币市场进入新一轮获利回吐的浪潮。9 ]$ s' {6 E' S8 m& r6 q
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但如果我们继续计分的话,矿工可能已经获得了更大份额。
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0 w/ t- X& I. w' A' Y2025 年 5 月是自 2024 年 4 月减半以来表现最好的月份。
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( A5 ?- v4 ?' i3 r) t据 The Block 报道,矿工获得了高达 15.2 亿美元的收入,其中 2000 万美元仅来自链上费用。% m4 y/ w' B; q( e
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话虽如此,早期预警信号正在出现。矿工持仓指数(MPI)已回升至零以上,暗示一些矿工可能已经将货币转移到交易所。7 J/ Y0 t3 h8 c
* a2 P9 w+ ^& P6 R; v: V- |$ D8 `) G从历史上看,大量资金流入往往会抢在投降事件发生之前,尤其是当现货价格接近平均生产成本时。( T% U" c# U+ q1 q9 ]% L
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这使得比特币处于压力区。如果比特币跌破当前区间,一些矿工趁利润丰厚之际套现或许是明智之举。$ k- o# _$ z& i
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这会不会成为比特币市场下一个波动的导火索?这绝对是值得关注的关键触发因素之一。
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这样可以找到下一步如何办的线索?* N, M' C) J9 k# e( e
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