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[虚拟币交流]
狗狗币——比特币最新价格反弹后，memecoin 的走势如何？（转）
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随着 BTC 回升至 10.6 万美元以上，狗狗币短期内反弹的可能性增加+ }. N+ }* O6 A3 m8 i# y$ d& ^
尽管 MVRV 比率为负，但狗狗币的派发阶段仍表明看涨信心较低$ J" |* T/ O9 U3 J# h
狗狗币[狗狗币]上周，该股遭遇挫折，在关键阻力位0.2美元处遭遇阻力。此后，该股已跌至0.17美元的局部低点。周一，比特币[BTC]从 105.6 万美元上涨至 108.4 万美元——撰写本文时涨幅为 2.72%。3 q) a1 x+ _, b; I e
. h8 a$ x! U# e% \未来可能还会有更多上涨，但宏观经济形势似乎与上周一样黯淡。此外，中东紧张局势似乎远未得到解决。在这种阴郁的背景下，领先的 memecoin 的价格走势并未改变长期投资者看跌的倾向。! u S/ d5 l! x/ D. Q2 [1 V
% X; r- T+ U8 b. O' Z
AMBCrypto 最近的一份报告强调了人们对山寨币的预期。永续合约市场似乎正在为大事约70%的山寨币交易者明显偏多，而大盘股资产的交易者则有60%偏多。事实上，在上周的暴跌之后，他们原本预期市场将出现复苏。6 H6 W: F+ R' R4 l9 a8 v- H
# `" Y9 m8 L& x4 y1 U$ C* r2 I8 {应该 DOGE交易员们也转向看涨了吗？- q; @! o( _! z# I
8 @/ {& C* V9 F
狗狗币仍对投资者保持看跌倾向
4 Q% ?" t _* l! N* U! k在一个在 X 上发帖，加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯观察到，TD Sequential 在狗狗币的 12 小时图上闪现了多个买入信号。然而，正如之前的分析指出的那样，狗狗币的 HTF 倾向仍然看跌.! [$ N3 J! T" r' p+ b3 P
0 X# u9 p/ s) G5 O9 \$ g# ?( J9 HOBV 的抛售压力加大，加上 RSI 的看跌势头和看跌结构，意味着突破 0.2 美元可能极其困难。- X9 j" C1 S' D$ M8 z& J
! m8 L) c1 l: s1 x/ C4 N. W仔细观察六个月或更短时间持有狗狗币的投资者行为，可以发现他们正在进行分配阶段。平均币龄（衡量所有狗狗币在其当前地址停留的平均天数）在过去五周多的时间里一直呈下降趋势。
8 w( ?* e) Y+ z! ~
% u) v; I3 p5 e; ^! ^这一下跌趋势意味着狗狗币正从持有地址中转移，可能是为了出售。过去一个月内，狗狗币流通量激增也凸显了链上活动的活跃。
% p: l4 k( p) B7 c# y; y3 I7 V' U0 C+ q
与此同时，即使领先的 memecoin 进入了分发阶段，180 天的 MVRV 比率仍然为负。- M, ?/ ]3 e# k
. g4 Z/ k' K3 b K }这对投资者来说可能是一个令人沮丧的信号。根据TD Sequential和比特币的反弹，交易员或许应该做多，但投资者仍应保持警惕。% l& M5 X! F8 C( E# J8 |/ p! K9 j
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