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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎4 _* \/ m2 u, K, u0 y
新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？( ^6 S" V* i- U" L6 k2 z
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。 I5 ^! W' A& Q
3 u$ \% r* K$ w; E/ d T然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。" o0 W+ d, q# ~2 B1 k
$ @1 l2 p( J: R& l E; T4 Z4 U这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?: A+ Y' ]$ e5 [3 Y
% _; z+ o7 v4 }( u4 v随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌
% l2 f! R! h/ R& Y/ s$ H4 f0 V: T要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。
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8 e& d. O, e2 p5 m在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。/ \4 x! E; F8 m: d0 _8 U0 H0 `
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有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。$ @/ U- R: W( a+ ]- x( F) D
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简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。' a; D$ h: K% E* r+ k3 C+ H. k
8 R# I! L* a% ?/ N三年后，形势发生了逆转。) Y) c5 d8 S! r2 m+ _- I
, M' Z+ B& M8 r/ u7 n$ a这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。! Z1 A8 X8 m1 e
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.8 ^; Q5 `2 K$ H" @% k
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。% @# v( ~' ]5 ^" k8 _
6 @, C+ @5 u. ~' ^零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。
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" W# b6 h3 O+ Q+ k. t因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。( ^/ i/ J! k( \& }& P7 G4 N& S
4 M) U5 i/ g( m. j9 k山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
: m/ `* @9 l- ?" k2 Y我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。! T9 y7 J3 H% S( C( f6 `
" u5 A% [! [' B0 e. d这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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1 w9 Y+ c/ s# a9 z, M# PXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。
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尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。7 |# W, c3 ?" x) t* R" i
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在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。
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