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[虚拟币交流]
宏观 FUD 如何影响比特币并引发“不同”的山寨币季（转）
[复制链接]
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最近，在比特币日益占据主导地位的背景下，山寨币一直在苦苦挣扎
`0 j6 b0 U+ u1 e: |) F2 z新型的山寨币季节最终能否扭转比特币的势头？+ v, |0 l8 F+ E8 g4 H m: g/ l/ M
六月历来是一个比特币[BTC]比特币 (BTC.D) 确立了其主导地位，今年也不例外。事实上，BTC.D 已攀升至 65% 以上，创下新的周期高点。
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3 @7 D4 _' M- p- [8 F, R3 \然而，今年地缘ZZ紧张局势又增添了新的变数。通常情况下，人们会预期资本会流入投机性资产，以利用短期波动。然而，BTC.D 却一路走高。; i/ p1 K( I5 b# Y
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这是市场的转折点吗？宏观的 FUD 进一步巩固了比特币的避险属性，而这一属性曾经只存在于山寨币?
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随着资本整合至 BTC，山寨季指标下跌* `( c1 y( G; d" a% j3 T6 F8 I; s
要了解比特币和山寨币之间的关系，我们需要退一步来看。! S: V/ e$ D7 i0 v9 g4 r: b
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在 2022 年熊市期间，一系列连锁冲击导致 BTC 暴跌，导致年度净亏损 65%，并以 16,531 美元的价格收盘。
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$ {6 ]9 Q$ g3 q2 t& v. M2 {有趣的是，同年第二季度以太坊的[ETH]相对于比特币而言，ETH 的表现达到峰值。ETH 吸引了资金轮动，甚至在 8 月中旬引发突破，在此期间表现优于 BTC。0 O) y( y" x' p" H
& F/ K- P$ E% k$ i; [简而言之，包括美联储大幅加息和 LUNA/UST 崩溃在内的宏观不利因素促使投资者寻求另类资产的对冲，短暂地为以太坊等山寨币带来了优势。2 x2 s% H4 f0 F3 s
/ Z' ~% N$ j0 l: f! P* d* l, w1 I, ^三年后，形势发生了逆转。
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这 altseason指标处于两年来的最低点，山寨币的月度损失达到两位数，而比特币的主导地位已飙升至四年来的最高点——与此同时，宏观压力继续考验牛市的信念。
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发生了什么变化？机构资本.; |! A- w0 W# k
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大型投资者如今主导着市场流动。而且，他们对BTC的偏好，将其作为宏观对冲工具和流动性锚，使其主导地位持续上升。- Y. W8 x3 P2 x; Q; b! U0 D
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零售业也开始迎头赶上。随着比特币表现出更强的资本韧性，许多人选择将资金投入BTC，以长期稳定性，而不是追逐高贝塔山寨币以获得短期投机回报。7 q( L3 |( y9 T" \% ^. B& i! Q& z
% k" ^" n3 R0 X, I: t" c因此，只要市场保持波动且宏观风险依然存在，山寨币轮换就可能继续处于观望状态。, K+ O& |; I) n$ D5 D
. c- S$ N9 E7 w6 h- S山寨币第 2.0 季 – 建立在实用性而非炒作之上
. |- h7 y# L& a+ z6 T# [; F我们可能正走向一个截然不同的山寨币季，它不再受“炒作”驱动，而是真正的实用性驱动。这一次，像以太坊这样强大的 Layer 1 链，索拉纳[SOL]，XRP 可能会引领潮流。
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6 [$ E" G! i# r* B0 x( {这些网络不仅仅是与比特币竞争。它们正在构建新数字经济的基础，并引领风险加权资产 (RWA)、DePIN 和稳定币等趋势。
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% u+ b+ M4 \0 N% V" YXRP新的稳定币，RLUSD就是一个很好的例子。它已经以 4.28 亿美元的市值跻身前 20 名，并且正在进军价值 2560 亿美元的庞大稳定币市场。& c m4 H- Z! E5 ]# F
9 p" x t8 u. m) b尽管如此，要让真正的山寨币市场腾飞，市场需要一个像 NFT 或模因币是过去的事了。话虽如此，我们已经看到市场行为发生了明显的转变。5 B3 M- F" {. |" ?+ E7 h" n1 M& `. L
% X3 r( {( |4 D q1 Y在机构资金流动的推动下，比特币的主导地位并未减弱。然而，在表面之下，山寨币正转向现实世界的应用。而且，这种转变最终可能会让局面重新对他们有利。: V c! k! f1 i
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