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[虚拟币交流]
解读比特币 11.5 万美元的困境——阻碍 BTC 上涨的两个因素（转）
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关键要点比特币接受者购买量下降意味着什么？ 这表明需求疲软，买家更加谨慎，有导致趋势逆转的风险。 哪些团体正在推动比特币的抛售压力？鲨鱼和散户交易者正在引领抛售，加剧了市场疲软。
自四天前卷土重来以来，[url=]比特币[BTC][/url]呈现出良好的上涨势头，达到每周最高 114,800 美元。 事实上，在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为 113,541 美元，过去 24 小时内小幅上涨了 1.16%。 尽管近期市场有所复苏，但比特币在需求方面仍然表现出相当疲软。 比特币的 Taker 买入量创下 2024 年新低根据 [url=]CryptoQuant[/url]，比特币的Taker买入量已连续十个月下降，达到2024年初的最低水平。 如此持续的下跌通常表明需求疲软，买家日益谨慎。币安的跌幅尤为明显，凸显了交易员信心不足和抛售压力不断加大。 销售活动明显增加。据[url=]阿克塞尔·阿德勒[/url]，比特币的SOPR一直未能突破1。 当 SOPR 升至 1 以上时，盈亏平衡持有者开始获利，这通常会引发获利回吐并放大抛售压力。 由于市场上卖家活跃，而购买压力较低，当前的趋势逆转面临风险。 从历史上看，买家主导地位的大幅下降往往先于市场势头的转变。因此，BTC 面临下跌的风险，或将进入新一轮长期盘整。 但谁在卖呢？值得注意的是，AMBCrypto 指出，不断上升的抛售压力主要来自鲨鱼和散户交易者。 虽然鲸鱼和巨鲸最近的流出量大于流入量，但鲨鱼的售出量却更多。 据 Checkonchain 称，尽管整体市场下滑，但鲨鱼与交易所的余额变化仍然保持正值。 截至发稿时，该群组的交易所余额变化为 109,000 BTC，表明交易所存款多于取款。 此外，散户也表现出了类似的市场行为。根据 Checkonchain 的数据，整个 9 月份，散户持有者的余额变化基本保持负值。 截至发稿时，钱包群组出现明显资金流出：鱼类余额变化为-7.9K BTC，螃蟹为-3.9K BTC，虾为-1.7K BTC。 从历史上看，这些群体的持续抛售表明下行压力不断加大——通常是价格进一步下跌的前兆。 BTC 的下一步是什么？据 AMBCrypto 称，比特币面临两个关键警告信号：买家正在撤退，而卖家则变得更加激进。 这种动态将BTC置于一个关键时刻——要么大幅下跌，要么持续横盘整理。如果抛售压力加剧，比特币可能会抹去近期涨幅，跌向111,054美元。 然而，如果目前的情况持续下去，BTC 可能会在较长时间内维持在 111,000 美元至 114,000 美元之间的区间波动。 为了突破这一区间并确认持续的上升趋势，买家必须将 BTC 推高至 114,000 美元以上并确保收盘价接近 115,000 美元。 4 N! _2 k- P5 ~: T
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