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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第二节]
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第二节 平手/半球初盘
8 X5 X3 t: @) {6 V6 x2 T% }
7 z& Q& d; s, {3 e 平半降盘,主难出3% i" S% |; G" Z2 U0 J8 ~' A
一般情况下,主队初盘让平/半只是对主场因素的考虑。在英超08-09赛季澳彩以平/半为初盘的83场比赛中,主队37胜26平20负,比率为胜45%、平31%、负24%,。虽然主胜率略高于客胜率,但是平局比率较大,使得主队不胜率高达55%。此数据与以往赛季略有出入。再看09-10赛季英超已经进行的比赛的统计。
( i6 W$ l5 [9 Y% p, ^ 09-10赛季半程主队平手/半球盘成绩统计:
, s! B* t9 O9 [0 \ 英超主队
$ M; H% A6 Z7 T7 [+ A 胜:23场 40%
* N* n" x' o0 z2 |; ~ 平:21场 36%
& G) k( T. i: r7 y 负:13场:22%
& U/ `- t3 ^0 Z 通过统计可以看到,英超平/半初盘,在09-10赛季进行时中的表现与上个赛季出入并不大。打平的比率与主胜比率已经十分接近,此盘路下足彩重点应在防平方面。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位为例,开始分析英超主队平手/半球初盘盘路。) F& i5 i( S) c$ Q2 W
{% e4 t, ?: e& ^1 j0 {+ a @/ w
一、初盘阶段
& A' m; }; a, T
. m# E4 Z( t$ p h, V 具体到水位如下:8 y+ w1 b; c" t* P1 ?7 h1 h
初盘低水:英超主队 5胜7平3负
) j7 Z- M/ h. v4 f- e- m, U4 s( R 初盘中水:英超主队10胜4平4负* o% W9 t3 g( c/ Y
初盘高水:英超主队3胜8平5负7 y- P; ] `6 X n' t0 H- b
& X0 G n! L/ Q 分析:初盘阶段平/半低水,主要发生在0.76-0.85区间。其中出现最频繁的是初盘0.84低水,该水下主队1胜3平1负,主队不胜次数较多,足彩打出10的可能较大。
) w" X/ j6 u. V+ \/ {* J" ^ 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.86-0.98水位区间。该水位下主队赢球机会较大,但是客胜和平局的比率也不小。在该中水范畴内0.92-0.94区间下主队输球比率较低,足彩打出31可能很大。0.88水位出现了2次均都分出了胜负,足彩可作为30双选的备选考虑。0.96、0.98水的不确定因素较多,足彩任选9和单场建议回避,14场的大单建议全包。在中水下要特别关注的是0.86/1.00水,在英超平/半盘中,该水位下主队基本不败,足彩跑出31的几率较大。
& l' B: e$ O6 _' }9 j3 r0 j 初盘阶段高水水位,主要发生在1.00-1.10区间。该区间内主队取胜的机会并不多。其中1.02水下主队输球或不胜次数最多,足彩打出10机会较多。1.00、1.10水下几乎都是平局,足彩出1的机会很大。1.08、1.06、1.04这三种水位下主队均都输球,足彩出0的可能性需要重视。/ d6 k5 G- }" q) w5 y% i
2 A3 O* j% k, o% f% x" t
二、临场阶段& R! M9 s) x# ]- T7 O6 H6 E; @
% c( Q3 N1 ~$ U" V# h8 D2 L, U
具体到盘口变化如下:
2 B. j8 C3 S- l! ] q 临场降为平手: 英超主队 1胜1平2负
- I- g/ w, {, _9 q' d0 m4 { 临场升为半球: 英超主队 3胜3平1负
8 ~% O W8 u3 E$ x
; a$ J' z& I( x0 d" x5 ]8 r" | 分析:临场主队降为平手盘,英超主队只取得1次胜利,主队不胜的比率较大,足彩10的可能性极高。这里要提醒大家的是,如在主弱客强、但是主队状态或者战意强于客队时,主队初盘让平/半高水,临场降盘升水到平手高水或超高水、而诸如立博、易胜博等亚盘甚至转为主队受让平/半高水时,则要注意客队大热、主队赢球可能反倒增大。% K# _! P1 V; ^8 \
临场主队升盘为半球盘,即区别升盘后是造热还是阻盘的问题,统计结果是主队基本不败,足彩31格局较正路。输赢盘的盘口特征如下:3 B: A; R6 F4 U) k# _
1 h- C9 @9 w! L; _
狼队0-1朴茨茅斯; D% m1 R/ s& y$ t) N8 j, M4 q+ A h+ C
初盘:0.76平手/半球1.10
5 n6 c/ ^+ R6 M 终盘:1.11半球0.75' a" G! C/ F( k5 M5 g& q! m3 G
0 e5 `& a5 F$ a* U; p 切尔西1-0曼联4 o9 n. H" Q( ^, N/ ]
初盘:0.78平手/半球1.08* u/ W$ F- P. j
终盘:0.86半球1.002 V% p' @4 e, z3 d( F
K) }% B0 Z. W7 ?- L$ {7 O
切尔西2-0利物浦; w/ h# ` N. L/ l8 i
初盘:0.88平手/半球0.986 j' l% E+ G1 u* i4 n' T
终盘:1.03半球0.832 ~1 z; F- k$ \5 a7 U+ j
C+ e* F% G, \ A; t: V+ a+ Z 热刺3-0曼城(赢盘)/ x p: q' X: p4 j1 K3 b
初盘:0.94平手/半球0.92
0 x+ n0 R& }& F3 P/ Z2 h 终盘:1.03半球0.836 ~' ?2 M7 Q% t
5 }8 w' L- v3 n; y3 a, A
博尔顿1-1斯托克城
% q" E8 |% m% [9 T; e 初盘:0.86平手/半球1.00
' R" g% {0 V% T 终盘:1.04半球0.82
; a$ X- l6 l1 R5 C: y3 { + b- r* A- o+ m/ l- W
提示1:初盘0.86/1.00水位作为上下盘水位,在平手盘和平/半初盘多次出现,在该水位下主队基本都不败,但要注意的是平局的次数也较多。
- a9 L) ]0 b& J# G 提示2:初盘水位0.88/0.96分胜负的概率较大。英超、英冠本赛季已经出现10场在初盘该水位下没有平局的比赛。
$ d% b. l) D8 Y9 q# ^$ R
( R9 n, p; j" \5 f) C e& n9 f 三、球队表现
9 h. ]; i9 {; f ) g, R$ K6 P. b j% t
赢盘较多的富勒姆,在初盘让平/半于实力接近的客队时都取得了胜利,在09-10赛季的两次平/半盘中分别战胜了布莱克本和桑德兰,该队让平/半初盘时主场出3的能力值得关注。其他表现较好球队是切尔西、伯明翰、斯托克城、维冈竞技,这些队伍都在主场让平/半时赢球较多,其中切尔西本赛季在平/半初盘下取得2胜、分别战胜了曼联和利物浦,伯明翰和富勒姆目前都是4胜1平1负,维冈竞技2胜4平,这些球队在让平/半盘时客队赢球机会都很小,无特别情况足彩31值得信任。狼队是在平/半盘下很少打出平局的球队,成绩是2胜1平3负,平/半盘下该队足彩可多考虑走两头。表现较差的球队是阿森纳、朴茨茅斯、埃弗顿、维拉、赫尔城、博尔顿,这些球队在平/半初盘下都是或平或败,目前均无赢球纪录,遇到他们的赛事,足彩建议以双选01为主。# H2 ^1 ?5 e& r# w
, Y5 |3 o4 G3 |0 S/ r 四、投注要点
$ x5 C: r& v f, L: D7 v+ ^; d 7 g6 R1 `$ `7 z y# a
要点1:平/半降盘,不选3. }% b& X' |. S
要点2:初盘低水,注意关注提示的水位
* U5 D% d( k1 I8 P6 U. t, a 要点3:主队升盘,多31
, @1 S+ S: \, ?- W 要点4:切尔西平/半、赢球多
7 @; |! A5 b1 `, y, c7 m! J 要点5:兵工厂平/半、0不可少0 P* j" z/ Q$ B0 ?* R8 x
要点6:切尔西升盘,首3补1可省0 |
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