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[lastpost] => 2762871 a16z 给 Web3 创业者的真话:下个十年,Web3 创业要盯住这三件事 1757348985 天策-瑶娥
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DeepSeek的强势兴起与加密货币市场的发展确实存在一定的关联性,这种关联既体现在技术驱动的市场波动中,也反映在中美科技竞争与政策博弈的背景下。以下从技术、市场、政策三个维度展开分析:: L: A5 }; n5 v% [* l0 R6 }0 R
, p/ ?- |0 k% O5 m& q/ \2 I一、技术维度:AI与加密货币的交叉影响
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1. AI技术突破冲击算力需求% O; @" m5 E2 k
! S/ e. J7 _, o& E% j& W4 \DeepSeek的崛起通过降低AI模型训练成本(使用更少算力实现高性能),直接影响了英伟达等芯片巨头的市场预期,导致其股价暴跌。由于加密货币市场(尤其是比特币)与科技股高度相关(过去6个月比特币与纳斯达克100指数相关性达80%),这种冲击迅速传导至加密领域,引发短期抛售。例如,2025年2月初的“黑色星期一”中,比特币下跌7%,以太坊跌幅达40%,合约市场爆仓额超20亿美元,部分原因正是DeepSeek引发的科技股恐慌。+ A0 _: a4 g& O, j; _6 o' _% r" y" A$ ~
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4 X+ S+ ]5 @5 S; Q9 g9 e2. AI驱动的加密生态创新. T& t1 k$ a c1 e
: I* w7 m. P/ k长期来看,AI技术可能推动加密货币生态的升级。例如:7 y1 s( B" n7 Y- d" Q6 N
) ^9 d1 F6 v `: ~( v
-Meme币的AI化:AI代理(如Clanker)已能自动生成代币并部署交易策略,短期内可能催生投机热潮,但技术融合也可能诞生更复杂的去中心化应用。! r( s) _5 e, P" H
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算力优化:低成本AI技术若应用于区块链网络(如优化共识机制或智能合约),可能提升效率并降低能耗,推动Layer 2等扩展方案的普及。
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% d. G- Z4 ` t h1 ~/ Q二、市场维度:中美竞争下的资本流动. D0 C) t; T ~, o0 e
4 K) x2 W7 O/ H# O1. 科技霸权争夺的溢出效应. U1 s _5 ~2 A
! e! b2 m, U: D, b' ~; [DeepSeek作为天朝AI领域的突破,打破了美国在AI模型和算力市场的垄断。美国ZF因此可能加速对华技术封锁(如限制芯片出口),并推动本土加密货币政策调整以巩固优势。例如,特朗普ZF计划通过支持加密货币创新(如“星际之门”AI基建计划)吸引资本回流,与天朝形成竞争。8 N6 b+ ?( d$ d: V/ l6 y
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2. 避险情绪与市场联动
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DeepSeek引发的科技股波动放大了加密货币市场的风险敏感性。投资者在不确定性中更倾向于抛售高风险资产(如山寨币),转向黄金或国债等传统避险工具。这种“去风险化”行为进一步强化了加密货币与科技股的联动性。5 I% H5 v& y) U( W. U
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+ ]2 G; ]; G! c8 t0 m; ~三、政策维度:天朝战略的隐性与显性关联/ U1 G o; { t* |3 o* K0 \) Y
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1. 天朝对加密货币的“保留态度”逻辑7 s# Q# J" y- m3 x: ?2 S6 k
$ ]9 y% K% Z& x, r( o天朝虽禁止加密货币交易,但并未否定其技术价值。政策核心是维护金融主权与稳定:
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防范资本外流:加密货币的匿名性可能挑战外汇管制,威胁人民币地位。
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; R1 P% V, E/ U$ N/ U9 t推动数字人民:通过央行数字货币(CBDC)巩固法定货币体系,与加密货币形成替代关系。. o' C- M1 x/ K1 L5 h- y
, x7 U* S: W' _2 b' H9 B- K2. AI与区块链的战略协同
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天朝在压制加密货币的同时,大力支持区块链技术研发,并将其与AI并列为数字经济核心。DeepSeek的低成本AI模式可能为区块链应用(如智能合约、跨链协议)提供技术支持,间接服务于国家主导的数字经济战略。
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3. 政策松动的潜在信号% B/ A# a$ s2 @
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近期天朝法院裁定个人持有加密货币合法,香港试行加密资产双牌照制,暗示政策可能从“全面禁止”转向“有条件监管”。若DeepSeek推动的AI技术进一步赋能实体经济,天朝或更倾向于将区块链与AI结合,探索合规的加密应用场景。
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总结:关联性分析& J/ Y, E: Y2 [# C* j, j
9 v4 F" g# G2 u" J: b& \. \% HDeepSeek的兴起与加密货币市场的关联主要体现在以下层面:
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: l2 g+ h, o2 z$ z9 s1. 间接技术冲击:AI效率提升通过算力需求变化和资本流动影响加密市场短期波动。
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. Z6 [& U" p5 B; Y6 m* G2. 中美竞争框架:天朝通过AI突破削弱美国科技霸权,可能倒逼美国在加密货币领域加大开放以吸引创新资源。' a* ]5 q, P& a, Z
2 g' x6 G) K4 c, I3. 政策协同逻辑:天朝将AI与区块链视为互补技术,加密货币的严格监管与AI的支持政策共同服务于金融安全与数字主权目标。! B6 ~+ @- f+ j( [# c0 s5 {& Q
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未来需关注两大趋势:
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_& C/ R7 k: N/ v/ k$ x技术融合:AI与区块链结合可能催生新业态(如AI驱动的DeFi协议)。) h2 c: R8 u' m. v/ e# P, M3 Z
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