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[lastpost] => 2750392 比特币交易员注意！—为什么这个指标预示BTC可能下跌20%（转） 1752889314 22301
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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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' s* A( A0 T- { 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而3 d/ d2 D, I g/ T
* k7 R/ i( P5 |& m“短期看空”比特币。
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. ~' w6 |: L% W4 c o “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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+ V G# P/ z' @0 E- Y实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
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$ g, ^9 n/ a3 T! z& Z9 O 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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* x f. D) s5 Q# a7 y6 {/ J) p; T6 W, H2 a+ F0 e/ T
& {" z$ f# X1 R* O7 w1 J3 G 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，( T! d1 u" A, r
7 [' @8 ?% m" U) i' S/ h而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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& N$ `+ B$ u/ @$ W* ` [ BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的
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' i# j( T" j9 r: h9 e) D8 t9 [5 d利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，7 L3 f! F* N0 k# W- L' s
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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