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[虚拟币交流]
随着山寨币投机行为加剧，比特币的主导地位跌至 60％ 以下（转）
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比特币在加密货币市场的主导地位急剧下滑，跌至59.2%，并跌破多个关键技术水平。此次下跌可能是一个重要的转折点，预示着期待已久的山寨币涨势即将开启。3 S7 L8 `8 k4 U9 D
, X5 ^8 o9 {( L8 [1 j: [) }仅在过去的一个月里，由于以太坊和其他山寨币都取得了显著的增长，比特币的市场份额就从 63.9% 下降。7 U9 }4 q' z4 U* p' ]
8 i! ^3 q2 Q! z5 L我们是如何到达这里的。这次崩盘标志着一场重大市场战的结束。以下是我们对前期的分析.3 j% D l3 R/ ^$ Y7 b& k
0 `, b4 p7 g$ P0 m- l技术水平面临压力
4 M. ~ a; ~) u; H( N" _# |& r: r' qDan Gambardello 表示，比特币的主导地位近期跌破了 60% 的心理关口，并跌破了绿色移动平均线的支撑位。目前，它正在测试 59% 附近的蓝色移动平均线。" _. N2 ]9 Y1 E8 h9 s
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上一次出现这种情况是在2024年11月，当时山寨币曾短暂上涨，随后比特币重新占据主导地位。此次下跌之前，市场经历了数月59%至66%的盘整。持续的跌破可能会促使大量资金转向山寨币。' u1 F& U1 w. E
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分析师 AltcoinGordon 进一步指出，比特币的主导地位正在下降，他指出，比特币已经跌破了近 62% 的三年上涨趋势线，这是一个关键的结构性转变。他认为，自 2022 年以来，这一水平一直抑制着山寨币的走势，跌破这一水平可能会引发整个市场更广泛的参与。
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这又是一次“假动作”吗？
( D8 j& ^7 e c4 P% j谨慎仍需谨慎。分析师 ZYN 指出，尽管历史经验表明，假突破是可能的，但目前的情况表明，比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。0 |0 q3 t' Y+ U$ v- t
! t$ \: |; P- c$ `" b1 c1 d1 {) Q2024 年第四季度，比特币短暂占据主导地位滑落至突破EMA-50水平后迅速反弹。ZYN指出，尽管历史经验表明，假突破是可能的，但目前的情况表明，比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。' r1 Y; b8 w) \7 Q6 B
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他认为，如果周收盘价低于关键的EMA-50移动平均线，可能确认市场将出现更具决定性的走势，并为“超级山寨币季”奠定基础。交易员将密切关注周收盘价，以区分真正的崩盘和又一次错误的开局。
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5 |9 y. J/ y( R; L2 h! u- h1 i市场份额正在发生变化+ I( @1 S, {5 |( P7 D
其影响已在数据中显现。以太坊的市场份额已从上个月的 9.7% 上升至今天的 12.9%，增长了超过三个百分点。其他加密货币的市场份额也已上升至 27.9%，这表明山寨币正在被广泛追捧。这种转变不仅是技术层面的，也是心理层面的，因为投资者的兴趣似乎正在超越比特币和以太坊。
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值得注意的是，比特币的主导地位在今年6月底达到峰值65.1%，这使得当前的下跌既迅速又引人注目。如果这种下跌趋势持续下去，可能标志着自2022年以来最重要的主导地位逆转之一，重塑市场领导地位，并可能加速山寨币的增长。# e; X0 R1 l2 d# C) N
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