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加密货币交易所交易基金（ETF）本周遭遇了有史以来最大规模的资金流出之一，美国投资者撤资近10亿美元（约合16亿澳元），市场普遍警告加密货币正处于修正边缘。周二，紧张不安的机构投资者从比特币ETF中撤出约5.23亿美元，并从以太坊ETF中创纪录地撤出4.22亿美元，拖累价格下跌。比特币和以太币自本月触及高点以来已分别下跌8%至113,948美元，以及下跌10%至4290美元。( H r# `; ^% D0 f: H/ j4 {
在澳大利亚，VanEck和Betashares的ASX上市比特币ETF自上周以来也下跌了近5%。
! d& `* t; O: a' d6 G4 J7 _比特币与以太坊ETF在周二创下单日流出纪录。
2 i I% q3 l) T0 k5 vBTC Markets的加密分析师、市场负责人Rachael Lucas表示：“许多机构交易员正在看到卖出信号，认为市场已经见顶，因此选择获利了结。” 她指出短期修正可能会持续，下跌幅度甚至可能达到30%。4 P& |- g9 _4 q* C- W
加密货币ETF交易占比特币供应量的6.5%和以太坊供应量的5.3%，会直接影响这些数字资产的价格，因为ETF发行商必须持有等量的标的代币。0 [2 c( B; E4 x, u, ]/ V- Y: f
周期性与通胀担忧7 \/ Z0 V. @$ {7 t
Lucas表示，这次修正部分是周期性的，与比特币的“四年减半”机制有关。所谓“减半”指的是大约每四年，新发行的比特币数量会减半，这通常会在随后的12至18个月内推动牛市行情，因为供应收紧。
# F d" I* J W- N& g6 \/ Q“如果按照比特币四年市场周期来看，减半后9月价格回落是正常现象，然后会在11月至12月左右再次回升。” 她说。; c- ? t: u! m. C2 g
不过，她也指出，美国总统特朗普的关税政策引发了对通胀的担忧，进一步加剧了投资者的避险情绪。上周，美国生产者价格指数（PPI）大幅高于预期，导致市场削减了对美联储降息的押注。5 W2 F( Z X, E2 x0 p
“如果人们担心通胀上升、生活成本变得更难承受，他们会优先抛售风险资产。” 她说，“在通胀周期中，散户投资者最先卖掉的就是加密货币。”
& f, M" H5 u1 p9 P9 b6 M# @: y“但如果通胀降温，美联储转向鸽派，这些ETF资金流出几乎可能在一夜之间转为流入。”' k% I# A) W @+ t( T
市场仍处早期阶段& M+ u$ b4 y1 C A' N( F% f5 n& a
加密货币交易所OKX Australia首席执行官Kate Cooper则认为，投资者可能只是趁着数字资产在本月创下历史新高后获利了结。她补充道，历史上的加密货币趋势未必完全适用，因为当前市场环境“截然不同”。4 ^" y) T7 F7 U" p* J4 F9 [& R" R
“过去我们看到的减半周期将不再那么剧烈，因为如今的监管环境和机构资金支撑带来了更大的稳定性。” 她说，“市场已经不再是由散户主导。”, ^( ?* o0 l( O
Cooper认为，周二的波动可能只是该领域自然的高波动性的一部分。3 ?! J4 Z' O8 n) B
“我不认为这是更大规模整体下跌的一部分……但这个市场仍然非常早期，我们永远无法完全预测会发生什么。这正是它令人兴奋的地方。” 她说。
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