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[lastpost] => 2768006 比特币、以太坊 ETF 上周吸引 19 亿美元投资，贝莱德 IBIT 领涨（转） 1758561104 jackcool1011
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以太坊价格预测：Coinbase分析师称ETH回调是上车信号-转
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以太坊创始人 Vitalik Buterin（V神） 表示，他希望以太坊未来能有一个更稳固的长期增长基石。他认为，低风险的 DeFi 协议有潜力成为以太坊的“稳定现金流”，就像 Google 搜索之于谷歌一样。这样一来，以太坊既能继续支持各种实验性和文化类应用，又不会牺牲其金融上的韧性。 V神强调，DeFi 不需要花里胡哨，也不一定要天天喊“颠覆”，关键是要能长期、稳定地产生收益，同时不违背以太坊的价值观，也不会踩道德红线。 他还呼吁开发者去探索新型数字资产，比如一篮子货币和锚定 CPI（消费者物价指数） 的 Flatcoin，这些都有助于巩固以太坊在全球金融创新底层中的“基建”地位。 这场讨论正值 以太坊 DeFi 生态的锁仓量（TVL）重回千亿美金大关，这是自 2022 年初以来的首次突破。这个里程碑不仅意味着市场正在走出熊市阴霾，也再次印证了以太坊在 DeFi 领域的霸主地位。 根据 DefiLlama 数据，以太坊及其二层网络占据了 64.5% 的 TVL 份额，而 Solana 的占比还不到 9%。 / ?+ F& o# }: \! ~% G2 m
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链上数据释放强势信号随着 DeFi 的复苏，以太坊基本面持续走强。过去一周，网络手续费上涨了 40%，活跃钱包地址数也增加了 10%。由于所有以太坊交易都必须消耗 ETH，这意味着链上使用率提升会直接带动对 ETH 的需求。 手续费的提升同样利好验证者，既增强了网络安全性，也进一步推动了 ETH 的自动销毁机制（Burn），从而不断收缩供给。
2 g, \1 {$ ]) o5 `链上活跃度提升 + 结构性通缩 的组合，正进一步强化 ETH 的长期投资逻辑。
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$ }& e* A3 p$ z与此同时，去中心化交易所（DEX）成交量已突破 3.5 万亿美元，再次证明了以太坊在去中心化应用上的无可匹敌的规模效应。 不过，尽管基本面强劲，ETH 近期价格表现承压——本周下跌约 4.15%，现报约 4468 美元。日成交量也回落逾 30% 至 180 亿美元，市场氛围偏向 缩量震荡整理。 # Q* Q& o) L, ^! o, A
: n" j( d& q0 l( y. T; N3 q) J: N5 U" K以太坊 (ETH/USD) 价格预测 —— 技术面展望当前 ETH 走势偏中性，价格自 9 月中旬以来一直被困在对称三角形区间内，行情逐步收窄。 50 日均线（EMA 4519 美元） 成为上方压制，而 200 日均线（EMA 4394 美元） 则提供关键支撑。整体波动率偏低，但这种三角形形态通常会迎来一次方向性突破。
* M( p# w% w1 ]5 a- z动能指标显示市场情绪偏谨慎。RSI 在 40 附近，说明多头力度减弱，而 4587 美元附近多次上影线则凸显了上方抛压。不过，形态下方的抬高支撑表明买盘正在坚守 4418–4394 区间。 如果跌破 4394 美元，下方将打开通往 4350 美元甚至 4280 美元的空间。反之，若能重新站上 4520 美元，则有机会测试 4587 美元与 4670 美元，并且量度突破目标直指 4760 美元甚至 5000 美元关口。 对短线交易者而言，关键在于观察支撑位附近是否出现强势K线；而对长线投资者来说，这里的震荡整理或许正是 ETH 为 2026 下一轮大行情筑底蓄势的过程。
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