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[虚拟币交流]
加密货币崩盘还是洗牌？杠杆率飙升或为下一轮反弹奠定基础（转）
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这 加密市场经历了近年来最混乱的周末之一，强制清算和恐慌性抛售的连锁反应引发了数十亿美元的损失。+ q) [4 z3 q1 i$ o Y8 z
- _3 Q. S! p; M: F, _6 F( [( Q比特币一度跌破 110,000 美元，而以太坊和其他主要加密货币在数小时内暴跌超过 20%，专家称之为加密货币历史上最严重的清算事件。
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9 i: G4 H. ^0 b- C加密货币总市值（来源：交易视图)4 y5 w, k: _, @# O* \. s# s+ U
. f; j. \- E7 ~- h- d3 H5 Q/ O在美国ZF宣布对天朝科技进口产品征收新关税后，股市出现大幅下跌，引发了人们对全球贸易紧张局势再度加剧的担忧。& x% N4 W4 H. A. P
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一家加密货币取证公司的调查主管 Joshua Duckett 表示：“大多数人的投资额都不会超过他们的承受能力，但在整个加密货币行业中，就杠杆交易而言，损失高达数十亿美元。”
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完美的加密风暴：杠杆和恐慌性抛售
( w* s2 @/ T& p$ J: Z3 r杠杆在加密货币闪电崩盘中发挥了巨大作用。* o+ J+ T" n( A3 O" P) V9 H1 K( G$ A( n
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那些为了扩大收益而大举借贷的交易员，在市场剧烈波动时遭受的打击最为严重。一旦触发清算门槛，就会出现一连串的抛售指令，加剧市场暴跌。/ W8 V3 u% v9 W0 v
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Duckett 指出，人们可以借入高达其资本 100 倍的加密货币。因此，当这些头寸被清算时，就会产生大幅快速的波动——而在本例中，波动幅度是直线下降，”这位分析师补充道。% X7 O+ @9 W3 o& N& [2 }
0 i9 ^( y1 l: \# G" V2 O按位文件夹经理乔纳森·曼 (Jonathan Man) 表示，几个小时内就有超过 200 亿美元被清算，抹去了约 650 亿美元的未平仓合约，并将市场头寸重置为 7 月份的水平。
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比特币曼表示，一小时内下跌了 13%，而长尾代币的跌幅则更大——一些像 ATOM 这样的代币曾短暂跌至零，然后反弹。5 U3 d3 ~6 s: H# y3 ?( [
5 A" Q' S& _! I2 l( v中心化交易所衰落，DeFi 保持强劲
8 {; w7 o% ?$ m! {3 `" V4 S有趣的是， 去中心化金融（DeFi）协议在混乱中表现更好。9 b' Y+ z6 S& O; s1 C. V+ u, w& G3 x7 }
. _& A9 I- G B( q6 V2 S' QMan 解释说，由于严格的抵押要求和稳定的资产配对，Aave 和 Morpho 等借贷平台的安全性更高。
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9 z: }$ @' [; |5 g- Q相比之下，中心化交易所则出现了大范围的混乱，在波动最剧烈的时候，币安和 Hyperliquid 之间的价差超过了 300 美元。
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流动性提供商为了管理风险而扩大了利差，一些平台甚至启动了自动去杠杆机制来稳定市场。Man补充道，Hyperliquid 的 HLP 金库实际上在抛售期间通过购买不良资产获利。
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复苏迹象：市场站稳脚跟
- \$ X5 \4 m( z$ D4 u0 M, Z尽管市场暴跌，但分析师们仍看到了企稳的早期迹象。随着杠杆头寸的重置和流动性的逐渐恢复，比特币和以太坊已开始小幅反弹。$ I4 L& R& M& k% l3 y: ]
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“情况似乎已经基本稳定了，”达克特告诉福克斯商业新闻。“目前，我们正处于反弹至稳定的阶段。明天又是新的一天。”: G D& l" @1 q/ ?5 |3 {
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曼表示同意，并指出大规模去杠杆事件可能为更健康的市场结构铺平道路。他表示，随着未平仓合约被清空，持有空头头寸的交易员已经在寻找后续机会。3 U$ K; F8 C- D; s+ z
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另请阅读：闪电崩盘震撼市场，现在最佳加密货币购买选择
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U* T# l) c# S5 o6 t" B曼恩观察到，价格已从极低水平回升。这股热潮重置了市场，并为市场情绪稳定后新的增持打开了大门。% Q7 o: u0 [5 i- q
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加密货币的未来之路 e3 z# y. q) w0 d$ b
虽然短期波动的可能性仍然存在，但加密货币市场的长期前景似乎没有受到影响。分析师表示，此次抛售已经清除了过剩的杠杆，可能为更可持续的复苏奠定基础。
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由于贸易政策和美联储行动带来的宏观不确定性挥之不去，交易员们正在关注可能重振信心的新催化剂。专家表示，如果下周市场继续保持稳定，本周末的暴跌可能不会被人们铭记为一次崩盘，而更像是一次亟需的调整。
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