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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 7 M+ L. R( g7 c: f  [9 l/ h/ v" g& A
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  M4 z. o+ ?8 x1 i# y) [只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔% t* p1 j0 p$ u) _" ~

" q0 M6 |5 y# q/ L三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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1 r3 `$ K5 t- K" Q4 v' n! G偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
2 r. B% g7 z8 d) ~7 F7 A9 n8 G0 O2 N  z! [
方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）. ^" W6 O# S" e- P$ p
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
2 O; c9 r# a3 ^
) F9 F; n  q! n: N% }就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱( S+ V( P: D/ z/ ~) x3 O

& P1 Y$ T6 d8 [# v5 ]当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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8 b7 b0 c# U5 M6 k8 b
6 D8 T. Q# f' B2 O1 u$ ]亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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  {4 N* l2 s! @* A1 g2 k而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
5 k* c  }6 H$ W# ]) i, U: v1 L, V9 `8 i
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。) `# V- u. e6 H7 F

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  E9 E9 g4 o) z$ s. `* ?理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。' p0 S1 w6 p0 u

. t$ Y  l/ I# {/ T+ O) P- Y$ h排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，- _+ K) L0 \: V, U4 S' C' O! Y
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，( d: E% E2 V1 |

5 O7 s: M8 U/ z0 `' r这比买国债存银行合算。$ y/ z; R* d# ~5 p
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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4 w/ O' }1 y* i) k1 a. W# m几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。" R# i5 b! {- @  E& E: {
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。' r) L8 K% [, e) G, k% W

" q, \7 J$ \( E放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，2 D$ o# N: t& B0 f4 u/ E
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就是回避了大的亏损，3 n, i0 U6 K) t' z
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
( K5 `8 m; J8 D' N$ Z5 W
1 H7 E' v& t" H9 V回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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