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FOMC会议纪要结束、比特币、以太坊的未来是什么？
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7 月 26 日至 27 日的 FOMC 会议纪要已出炉。继上周CPI 数据不及预期的通胀小幅回落后，整体市场有些乐观。然而，会议并没有传达任何惊喜，无论好坏。正如大多数人所预期的那样，会议纪要证实再次加息的可能性很高。大多数参与者同意 9 月份的利率为 75 个基点，并且大多数人认为几乎没有证据表明通胀压力正在消退。与此同时，随着 BTC 跌破 23500 美元，比特币和其他替代品面临下行压力。
8 月 10 日，低于预期的通胀率导致纳斯达克指数比 6 月的低点上涨了 20%。汽油价格的大幅下跌帮助 CPI 数据将 SPX 推高至阻力区上方。比特币和其他山寨币也有所上涨。
在一场小小的胜利中，人们重新寄希望于美联储在利率方面不会那么激进，但现实情况并没有改变。最近的 FOMC 会议纪要显示，基调仍然相对鹰派，鸽派观点仍处于尾声。目前，石油和其他大宗商品价格至少需要三个月的温和上涨，才能考虑停止加息周期。
对于市场来说，现在有点像金发姑娘的情景，因为劳动力市场保持稳定，通胀可能开始下降。这就是软着陆的样子。但一个月的通胀放缓不足以让美联储发出一个明确的信号。
8.5%的通货膨胀率仍然很高
可以推测，货币政策开始影响经济，美联储知道这一点。在避免通胀上升方面，他们不想自满，因此他们不断评估金融稳定性。联邦公开市场委员会表示，联邦基金利率接近“长期中性”，但该信息应谨慎对待。前财政部长劳伦斯萨默斯很快就批评并称鲍威尔的观点是“一厢情愿”。在如此膨胀的经济中，2.5%的利率不可能接近中性。
比特币与集体股市之间的相关性仍然相对较高。昨天，比特币与其他主要山寨币一起出现小幅下跌，但并未就 FOMC 会议纪要签署。
现在，虽然相关性仍然很高，但以太坊即将合并正在引起积极关注。最大的山寨币的表现相当好于比特币，并且“合并”的社会主导地位有所增加。现在 9 月 15 日/16 日标志着预定的合并数据。那一周的其他重要日期是 12 日/13 日 CPI 数据发布和 9 月 21 日是 FOMC 会议。随着市场在周期性压力中导航，比特币、以太坊和其他替代品的波动期仍然存在。
今天的分享就到这里，后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿资询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。有问题可以评论提问或者私信 来源：金色财经 |
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